Wolf on the prowl for talent
The NFL combine was this week and the Patriots were very eager spectators. The Patriots got their first chance to meet their most likely draft picks, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye.
Both players didn’t participate in any drills, but both took a few minutes interviewing with every team. Both faced the media at the podium and presented themselves very well.
The Patriots are in a good spot picking number three. If they want to draft a quarterback like everyone believes they do, they will most likely have the decision made for them by the two teams drafting ahead of them. Caleb Williams is expected to go one. Washington has the second pick. They will have their choice of Daniels or Maye. That will leave the Patriots no other option than to pick whoever was passed on. And that’s not a bad thing. Daniels and Maye are both tremendous prospects, albeit with some slight flaws.
At the very least, Patriots’ de facto new GM, Eliot Wolf will be removed of any culpability about the pick. If the Patriots are left drafting Maye and he becomes a bust, Wolf can respond to criticism, “What other choice did I have?” He could even go on to say, “Hey, I wanted Daniels, but Washington took him.” Or vice versa.
But not so fast. There will be other options for Wolf and they are options I would seriously consider exploring. The other options would involve trading down to get more picks. The Patriots have a lot of holes to fill. Most, if not all, are on the offensive side. Picking a quarterback with their first pick, alone, will not make the Patriots immediate playoff contenders. However, picking a quarterback, wide receiver, and tackle in the first 40 picks might.
There are no guarantees when drafting a quarterback in the first round. Recent examples like Zach Wilson and Trey Lance should immediately come to mind. Heck, we need to look no further than our own backyard at Mac Jones. The Patriots drafted Jones 15th overall, but there was talk prior to the draft that the San Francisco 49ers were considering drafting Jones with the 3rd overall pick.
The last time the Patriots had this high of a pick was in 1993 when they had the first overall pick. Prior to that draft, there was a huge debate over which quarterback the Patriots should draft – Drew Bledsoe or Rick Mirer. Mirer had more mobility and played for Notre Dame, while Bledsoe was more of a statue in the pocket but had a much bigger arm. The Patriots picked Bledsoe and Mirer was chosen next by Seattle. Mirer would become a bust and was pretty much washed up after only four seasons. He would compile a 24-44 career record, throwing 50 touchdowns and 76 interceptions. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl in his third season and would go on to become one of the most prolific passing yardage quarterbacks in NFL history.
In my eyes, the biggest quarterback draft bust in history came in 1998. It sounds comical now, but there was debate as to who should be drafted number one – Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf. I am ashamed to admit that I thought Leaf should have been picked first. Leaf was (is?) 6’5”, had a rifle arm, and could run. Unbeknownst to me, Leaf was also a complete a-hole. Leaf would be out of the league after three years after compiling a 4-17 career record. He threw 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions. Many joked about Leaf not being able to distinguish the helmets on the field.
There have been many other examples of quarterbacks drafted highly flaming out in spectacular fashion. So there is no guarantee that drafting a quarterback, even this high, will automatically turn a franchise around. In fact, it may do the exact opposite and set it back even more years (or decades).
On the flip side, there have been quarterbacks drafted in middle to late rounds succeeding. The greatest example, of course, is Tom Brady.
Recently, Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant (the last player drafted) in 2022. He proved to be very relevant – leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl in only his second season.
In 1994, Kurt Warner went undrafted. Warner found himself stocking shelves at a grocery store while he awaited a call from some NFL team. Today, Warner is in the NFL Hall of Fame.
Teams, obviously, can’t count on that kind of luck when looking for a Super Bowl caliber quarterback. But they can count on good scouting. If the Patriots are not 95%-plus sure that Daniels or Maye is that guy, then they should trade down to a position where they can draft a top tackle. Then they should trust their scouting on drafting a second-tier quarterback – like Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix – with their second pick. The wide receiver crop is exceptionally deep this year, so there should be a difference-maker available after the Patriots’ second round pick.
If I were the Patriots, I would definitely trade down. There is no shame in it. They shouldn't be worried about about being mocked for emulating Bill Belichick's reputation for always trading down. Oh, here we go again.
Daniels slight frame scares me. Maye is a little too erratic, and his personality screams Mac Jones to me. I would look to trade down a few picks – maybe to the Giants or Chargers – and draft Joe Alt or another top tackle.
With the 34th pick, I would take Michael Penix Jr. His injury history will scare many away. Not me. To me, it shows his resilience and toughness. He has also played in miserable weather conditions – a must for a New England quarterback. Teams will be scared away by his age, but, to me, it represents more maturity. I also am not expecting a quarterback that is drafted today to be with that same team fifteen years from now.
My dream scenario has the Patriots trading for Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears. The Bears are expected to draft Caleb Williams. It is no secret Fields is on the market, and the Bears have said they will decide on a trade in the next week or two.
I would be willing to give up as high as a second round pick (although it would not be this year’s). If they want a pick this year, I would go as high as third round.
Trading for Fields would be like having another first round pick, but one with NFL experience. Fields was the 11th overall pick in the 2021 draft. To this point, he can be included on that previous list of first round quarterback busts. But he has shown flashes, especially at the end of last season (which is what should be most interested in).
If the Patriots could swing that deal, they should definitely trade down from their third overall pick to put themselves in position to draft a top left tackle like Alt. I would consider, but not do, keeping the pick and drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. to pair with Fields. They wouldn’t have to draft Penix (and his injury risk) in the second round – as their quarterback position would now be filled for the immediate future –and instead could go after another one of the elite wide receivers in this draft. Hopefully, as a result of trading down in the first round, the Patriots could maybe get another top 50 draft pick and be able to score another tackle. I would take a flier on a developmental young quarterback later in the middle rounds – Joe Milton III or Sam Hartman.
I am no draftnik, but I trust that Wolf, Matt Groh, and the rest of the new Patriots' front office staff are. They should be able to find some wide receiver talent (i.e. another Demario Douglas) late in the draft. Yes, I would look to go ALL offense in this draft with maybe one exception (cornerback? edge?). If the Patriots can add something significant in free agency, and the Patriots nail this draft, there is no reason the Patriots couldn’t be the 2024 version of the 2023 Houston Texans.