Where will the wheel stop for the Patriots on draft day?

The NFL Draft cannot come soon enough. This Thursday, all the speculation and mock drafts will be done. Thank God. The Patriots will, finally, make their first round pick. Most likely it will be the number three pick overall. There is a chance the Patriots may have two first round picks instead, at 11 and 23, if they make the much-talked-about trade with the Minnesota Vikings. Either way, the speculation will be over and the discourse will change to what the Patriots should have done.

It is comical to me how the discussion has changed over the last three or four months despite no games being played. If my memory serves me correct, here is how the discourse has evolved because, trust me, I have listened to almost every Patriots' podcast on YouTube for twelve weeks now.

In early February, when the draft order was determined, it was widely believed Caleb Williams would go first, Drake Maye second, and Jaylen Daniels third. Williams and Maye were always considered the top two picks all year despite both quarterbacks having down years from the year before. Daniels came out of nowhere to win the Heisman Trophy, but was still considered a rung below.

Patriots’ fans and media were bummed out, at first, at the possibility of missing out on Drake Maye. Maye was the prototypical NFL pocket quarterback. Standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 230 pounds, he drew comparisons to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. He had the big arm to go along with the big frame. He was tough and durable.

Patriots’ media were never very down on the idea of Daniels coming to New England, but there were concerns. The Patriots have never had a quarterback like Daniels. Not many teams have. Daniels could run like a gazelle and he could throw a beautiful deep ball. He didn't turn the ball over. Unfortunately, he also has the slight frame of a gazelle, maybe even that of a greyhound. 

Rumors also started circulating that Daniels didn’t want to play in the cold weather of New England. The media began questioning Daniels’ arm strength and concerns started being raised about his ability to throw over the middle. Was he the product of having two tremendous receivers – both of whom should be top twenty picks in this year's draft? He was also criticized for leaving the pocket too quick at the slightest hint of pressure. His hands are too small, they say.

Mentally, Daniels expressed a lack of desire to play in the bad weather of New England and, maybe, he isn’t cut out, physically, to be successful in New England. We were reminded with Mac Jones how important it is for a quarterback to have the arm strength to withstand the wind, snow, and cold of football in the Northeast in December.

Then Kliff Kingsbury got hired as offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders in early February. In an interview, Kingsbury described his perfect quarterback:

"When the money is on the table, you gotta be able to make some plays with your feet, move around enough to escape a bad play. Doesn't mean you gotta run like Lamar (Jackson) or Kyler Murray, but you better be able to move a little bit and buy yourself some time. ... You want that player to be the hardest worker on your team, you want them to lead those guys."

Sounded like he was describing Jayden Daniels. Kingsbury was Kyler Murray's head coach for four years.

Around the same time of Kingsbury's hiring, the media began looking closer at Maye’s final year in North Carolina. New England reporters, like Boston Journal's Greg Bedard, dumped on Maye hard. 

In a podcast in early March, Bedard said he had just finished taking an in-depth look at Maye and there were a lot of things to be concerned about. Maye would have to sit at least a year, if not two. Bedard compared Maye to Blake Bortles. He said there were concerns about Maye’s footwork,his mechanics, about his drifting in the pocket, about his decision making. 

Around the same time, the name Mitch Trubisky began being bandied about as a comp to Maye. So, all of a sudden, Drake Maye had gone from Josh Allen and Justin Herbert to Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky. Chris Simms produced a list with Maye ranked as the sixth best quarterback in the draft. Merril Hoge said that he believed drafting Maye would cost a general manager their job.

In mid-March, the Minnesota Vikings shook up the draft landscape by acquiring a second first-round pick when they completed a trade with the Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings now were in possession of the 11th and 23rd picks – the only team with two first round picks. Minnesota had just lost their longtime quarterback, Kirk Cousins, in free agency. The Vikings have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Justin Jefferson. They need someone to keep him happy and get him the ball. There was little doubt the Vikings were positioning themselves to try to move up further to draft Daniels, Maye, or even JJ McCarthy (more on him, shortly).

With the national media souring on Maye, it was only natural that Patriot Nation began warming up to the idea of, gulp, "pulling a Belichick" and moving down in order to accumulate more “draft capital.” With the 11th, 23rd, and 34th picks in the draft, the Patriots could still draft a starting left tackle, quarterback, and wide receiver – possibly in that order. 

Media members like Tom E Curran were advocating to trade out of the third spot because the Patriots roster wasn’t ready to support a rookie quarterback. Curran was the most vocal about it. It was a dumb argument, in my opinion, because there is a reason teams are usually drafting in the top three of a draft – because their team is not very good. 

The quarterbacks coming out in next year’s draft are not nearly as good as this crop. Drake Maye would certainly be the top quarterback in next year’s draft if he stayed another year in college. If the Patriots have any chance of drafting a franchise quarterback, they need to roll the dice this year.

NBC Sports Boston's Phil Perry, briefly, proposed the idea the Patriots should trade with the Bears for Justin Fields and then trade with the Vikings for their two first round picks. I agreed with Perry. But then the Bears traded Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for, basically, nothing. That ended that brief discussion.

The next media cycle introduced Michigan’s JJ McCarthy into the mix. Rumors started circulating that de facto general manager, Eliot Wolf, was enamored with McCarthy. Mock drafts began popping up with the Patriots not even trading down for McCarthy, but actually taking him at number three. The Patriots had pretty good luck with a previous quarterback from the University of Michigan, people were quick to point out. This one had some legs and lasted a couple of weeks.

Then came the pro days. The most impressive day belonged to Drake Maye. Remember him? The once unanimous second pick overall had seen his stock  plummet.  He had a lot riding on his showcase on March 28, and he didn’t disappoint. He showed off his big arm. He showed his ability to throw “off platform.” He threw the ball off his back foot, effortlessly, sixty yards. He showed he could make all the throws. He showed poise and leadership.

Phil Perry was quick to jump back on the bandwagon – if indeed he was ever off of it. Even prior to the pro day, Perry was saying that Maye might be the best quarterback in the draft.

The hard-to-impress Greg Bedard was converted. He was now convinced that the Patriots should take Maye. The talent was too much to be ignored. “The ceiling” was too high.

Even Tom E Curran was now on board. He gave up on his argument of trading down because the team had too many other holes that needed to be addressed first.

Just when you thought a consensus was coming together, people started taking note of Michael Penix Jr's pro date. He ran a sub-4.6 40-yard dash and showed that he was more athletic than many were giving him credit for. Combined with positive medical reports on his knees and shoulder, Penix’ stock began to, quietly, rise. After Penix’ disappointing performance in the national championship game against Michigan, it was thought the Patriots would have a legitimate shot at Penix in the second round with their 34th pick, if they so choose. That was then in this ever changing rookie quarterback carousel.

Following Penix’s pro day, however, many believed Penix wouldn’t get past Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams at 19. Certainly Minnesota wouldn’t pass on him if he was still there at 23. The Raiders were also being attached to Penix at 13. 

There was some banter about the Patriots maybe doing that trade down thing again with Minnesota and drafting Penix at 11 or, maybe, taking a chance that he might still be there at 23. If you listen very closely, you could even hear murmurs about the Patriots taking Penix at three if they thought that highly of him. If you think he is that good, take him at three. Don't mess around.

To add fuel to the fire, the Patriots brought Penix in for a visit this week. It was always curious that the Patriots never interviewed him earlier. It led many to believe that the Patriots were completely out on Penix. Now the buzz was the Patriots had renewed interest in the University of Washington quarterback.

To throw one more monkey wrench in things, there has been some talk this week that Jayden Daniels now would prefer to play in New England and not Washington. Seems like Daniels and his agent were upset that when they visited Washington, they were not alone. Daniels was part of a group that consisted of Maye, McCarthy, and Penix. Might Daniels' misgivings give Washington some pause before drafting him.

Also this past week, Eliot Wolf held a press conference. One of the eyebrow-raising things he said was that the Patriots were “open for business in the first round and every round after that” when asked if he might be willing to trade down from the third pick. To me, it sounds like Wolf is just doing his due diligence. He would be remiss if he just hung up the phone every time a team inquired about the third pick. If some team offered him “a bag” (a term going around to describe what it would take for the Patriots to move from the third pick), he would have to consider it.

But now that we are in the final days prior to the draft and the dust is beginning to settle, it seems the needle appears to be returning to where it was, initially. For the last three months, that needle has been spinning like a compass' needle spins when placed next to a magnet. But now, it appears most people are on board with the Patriots drafting Drake Maye... or maybe...