Week 8 preview: What a difference a week makes

What a difference a victory can make. Last Sunday morning, Patriots’ fans and media were scouring the coming schedule trying to find where New England might possibly squeeze a win or two, maybe three, more this season. Maybe they could beat the Giants and Broncos. Maybe if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t come back, the Pats could beat the Jets again. A 4-12 record seemed a very real possibility.

The outcry was for Robert Kraft to fire Bill Belichick immediately. OK, maybe us fans could wait until the end of the season, but Kraft better fire Belichick at some point. Kraft better not let Belichick anywhere near next year’s draft.

For the first time in decades, people were questioning if the six-time Super Bowl champion New England Patriots should {gulp} tank. Mac Jones should be gone. The Patriots should tank for Caleb Williams. We could settle for Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., or maybe even Bo Nix. The point was we need a new quarterback! This franchise needed a 100% reboot.

Fans were outraged last Sunday morning when, in the midst of all this turmoil, it was reported by Ian Rapoport that Kraft gave Belichick a “multi-year, lucrative” contract extension last offseason. What the *&%@#%$#&!!!!

Then the Patriots went out for three hours and played their best football of the season in upsetting the Buffalo Bills. The offense showed signs of life. Demario Douglas gave the team some energy. Mike Onwenu was switched to right tackle and, suddenly, Mac Jones had some time to throw. The result was Mac Jones actually looked like a competent quarterback. Whoa, what do we have here?

The defense picked off Josh Allen’s first pass of the day. The defense rattled Allen for the remainder of the day. Rather than sit back, the Patriots were blitzing relentlessly.

When the game clock read all zeros, the Patriots had won, 25-21.

Now the narrative has all changed. Sunday night, the discussion was that maybe the Patriots weren’t as bad as we thought. Maybe Mac Jones wasn’t as bad as we thought.

After sleeping on it, though, Monday morning Patriots fans and media were fully recharged. Instead of looking for a win or two, now people were looking for “paths” to the playoffs. Now, not only could the Patriots beat the Giants, Broncos, and Jets – they should be able to beat Washington, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh. The Patriots own Justin Herbert so they might be able to beat the Chargers at home.

As the week wore on, people started convincing themselves that New England might be able to beat the high-octane Miami Dolphins this Sunday. Miami is 5-2. The Patriots are 2-5. The Dolphins come into the game averaging 34.3 points per game. The Patriots do not. The Patriots might be able to score 34 points total in three games.

I think this week will be a reality check for Patriot Nation. The Patriots have never played well in Miami, even when they had TB12 at the helm. What chance does MJ10 have?

The glimmer of hope is that the Dolphins come in really banged up. They lost a physical game to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, 31-17. They have the Kansas City Chiefs next week. This week is the definition of a sandwich game for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are built around speed, but a lot of their speedsters are hurting right now. The curse of being a speedy team is that, typically, speedsters are built smaller, lighter, and not as strong (think Tyquan Thornton). Live by the sword, die by the sword.

If you watched Miami’s Monday night game against the Eagles, you would have noticed wide receiver Jaylen Waddle missing portions of the game. He was wincing on the sideline and trying to stretch out his back. He is listed as questionable for the Patriots’ game.

More alarming for the Dolphins came around midweek when word began circulating that superstar wide receiver Tyreke Hill might be unable to go with a hip injury this Sunday. Worst case scenario for the Dolphins is that they will be down their top two wide receivers. Best case scenario is that they play, but they will not be as dynamic as usual. Back and hip injuries are tricky. Any hit, innocuous or not, could sideline either one of them for the game.

Their running game isn’t doing much better. De’Von Achane may be the fastest of all on the team. He has been their big play back averaging a ridiculous 12.1 yards per carry while scoring five touchdowns on only 38 carries. He had an additional two touchdowns receiving on only nine catches. That is seven touchdowns on 47 touches. Unreal. But he was placed on IR and will miss at least the next four weeks with a knee injury.

Raheem Mostart is the veteran starting running back. Just because I say veteran, doesn’t mean he is slow (as opposed to Ezekiel Elliott). According to Next Gen Stats, Mostert has the fifth fastest speed on a carry this year. Mostert ran for 121 yards and two touchdowns last time against the Patriots, including a 43-yard missile up the middle that sealed the Dolphins win. But Mostert found himself on the injured list with an ankle injury.

The Dolphins’ offensive line is also in disarray, especially the left side. Old friend Isaiah Wynn has returned to his usual spot on the IR. He was actually playing decent at left guard for the Dolphins. The Patriots had used him, ineffectively, at right tackle. Starting left tackle Terron Armstead is also on IR. Starting center Connor Williams is listed as questionable. That is too bad as Williams has been having a terrible time with shotgun snaps this year. He is usually good for at least two errant snaps per game.

The Miami defense also has the injury bug, especially in the secondary. The good news for them is that they should be getting all-world cornerback Jalen Ramsey back. The bad news is that he should still be rusty and not fully healed from his meniscus repair. He is way ahead of schedule on his return as he was only expected to return in December. The other bad news is that free safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Xavien Howard are banged up. Howard was the one who had that interception down the right sideline at the goal line against the Patriots in which DeVante Parker was ridden out of bounds and made little effort to fight for the ball.

The Patriots come into the game relatively healthy. Keion White has been the only one missing from practice this week. The Patriots didn’t have Jonathan Jones in the first matchup this year against the Dolphins. Jones has been touted as a Tyreek Hill stopper. Jones will be playing on Sunday. Jack Jones will also be playing after missing the first matchup with Miami. The Dolphins will also be seeing J.C. Jackson for the first time this year.

Prediction: Miami 27, New England 13

I guess all that was a fancy way of me saying the Dolphins won’t win, 45-7. Despite all the injuries in the Miami secondary, the Patriots are ill-equipped to take advantage of it. The receiving corps is just too slow – with the exception of Demario Douglas. I have a bad feeling Belichick will be trying to integrate slow-footed JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is recovering from a concussion, back into the rotation. Belichick will be reluctant to take away too many more snaps from veteran (and this time it does mean slow) DeVante Parker.

The Patriots defense has continued to do very well despite the loss of their top two defenders, Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon. Christian Barmore is coming on strong and should be licking his chops when he sees the Miami o-line. Anfernee Jennings has also been playing extraordinarily well on the edge replacing Judon.

After the Patriots loss to the Raiders dropped their record to 1-5, many, myself included, thought the Patriots would be 1-7 after having to play Buffalo and Miami in the following weeks. If they can pull off an upset again this week, they will be 3-5 after eight weeks with Washington, Indianapolis, NY Giants, Chargers, and Pittsburgh coming up next. More importantly, it will mean they are playing better. Mix in a bye week in a couple of weeks to get healthier. Maybe there is a path to the playoffs, after all. Maybe.

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