Week 7 predictions: Looking at a lot of upsets

I had a pretty good week last week. I was 11-3 straight up, 10-4 against the spread, and 8-6 on over/under point totals.

When I was wrong, though, I was spectacularly wrong. I, ahem {cough}, picked Dallas to win outright against Detroit, but the Cowboys managed to only score 9 points. Amazingly, I still won my over bet as Detroit scored 47 points by themselves to clear the 51.5 hurdle. 

The Steelers and Raiders decided to score 16 points in the fourth quarter to cost me the under and screw me out of a few hundred dollars as that was my only loss in a few $2 parlays.

I missed the Commanders-Ravens game spread by a half point as the Ravens won by 7 and the spread was 6.5.

I was right about the Tampa-New Orleans game being a shootout despite the Saints starting rookie Spencer Rattler.

The Giants suffered a letdown after their upset win on the road against Seattle last week. They managed only 7 points in their return home in a loss to the Bengals on Sunday night – dropping Daniel Jones’ record in primetime games to 1-14. Ouch.

Oh, and Drake Maye threw three touchdowns as the Patriots showed some signs of life on offense. Let’s get to this week:

DEN vs Saints

Spread: DEN -3

Total: 37.5

Denver is one of the toughest teams this year for me to handicap. I think I have picked them wrong the last four weeks. I just look at Bo Nix and I think “loss.” I guess Denver’s defense is that good, but they will be without stud cornerback Patrick Surtain this week. Sean Payton returns to New Orleans with whom he won a Super Bowl in 2009. Payton has been milking that victory ever since.

I like the Saints to win outright. I want to see Rattler outduel Nix in a battle of rookie quarterbacks. I think Rattler comes in with a chip on his shoulder and with something to prove. Alvin Kamara is, far and way, the best offensive weapon in this game, which is not saying much. Give me the under 37.5 points. 

SEA vs ATL

Spread: ATL -3

Total: 51.5

These are two teams going in opposite directions. Seattle has lost three in a row and Atlanta has won three in a row. I think the trend continues.

Atlanta wins and covers. Seattle’s defense is banged up and they have given up 42, 29, and 36 points, respectively, in the last three games. I’ll take the over as Seattle’s last three games have had both teams combine for an average of 53 points and Cousins is better than Carr, Mayfield, or Dalton.

TEN vs BUFF

Spread: BUFF -9

Total: 40.5

This one looks like a huge mismatch on paper… but that’s why they play the games. Buffalo is favored by nine points but the point total is only 40.5. That’s a tight squeeze. The Titans have scored 17 or fewer points in four of five of their games. Maybe they shouldn’t have fired Mike Vrabel. Just a thought.

Buffalo wins and covers. Josh Allen needs a rest. He has been getting hit hard and he has been carrying this team all season. Look for him to hand the ball off a lot and take it easy on Sunday and do bare minimum. Give me the under. Something like 23-10.

CIN vs CLE

Spread: CIN -5.5

Total: 41.5

The Browns are another offensively challenged team. They haven’t scored 20 points in any of their games this year. You can’t win like that... but you can cover. The Bengals have been sleepwalking through this season, but it should be enough to beat Cleveland.

The Bengals will win, but Cleveland will cover. The Bengals have been playing down to their competition all season. I’ll take the under.

HOU vs GB

Spread: GB -2.5

Points: 47.5

Hey, finally, some offense. The Packers surprised me by making easy work of the Cardinals last week. Jordan Love has had at least two touchdown passes in each of the four games he has played this year. Stroud has had at least 20 completions in all five of his games. This should be a shootout.

I will take Houston to win outright. I may be biased because I watched Houston manhandle my Patriots last week. The Cardinals didn’t hold up their end of the bargain last week in helping me hit my over in Green Bay, but I think Stroud and Love won’t disappoint. I feel good about betting the over in this one.

MIA vs IND

Spread: IND -3

Total: 43.5

Back to some crappy offenses. This game proves the importance of roster construction and having a viable backup quarterback. The Dolphins haven’t managed more than 15 points in any game since Tua went down. Joe Flacco has won three out of four for the Colts after Anthony Richardson went down. Richardson should be back for this one. Indy fans don't know how to feel about that.

Indy wins and covers. The Colts can reach 20 points. The Dolphins cannot. Give me the under again.

DET vs MIN

Spread: MIN -2

Total: 50.5

The Lions just keep rolling. They’ve scored over 40 points in each of their last two and they made it look easy defeating Seattle and Dallas. Minnesota remains one of only two undefeated teams this year. This will be a tough test for Brian Flores’ defense, but he has already shut down the 49ers, Texans, and, to a lesser extent, Packers. Only Green Bay scored more than 17 points.

Detroit wins outright. I learned my lesson after picking against them last week in Dallas. The Vikings offense won’t be able to keep up with the talent on the other sideline. Give me the over although Flores scares me in keeping the score low.

PHI vs NYG

Spread: PHIL -3

Points: 42.5

The Eagles continue to underperform as Belichick’s shadow is looming larger and larger over their hothead head coach Nick Sirianni. The Eagles only managed to beat the Browns by four and fans weren’t happy as “fire Sirianni” chants echoed through the home stadium. In the words of Bonnie Raitt – Let’s give them something to talk about.

The Giants win outright. The team will be pumped to beat their former teammate, Saquan Barkley. Daniel Jones will be relieved the game is not on primetime (1-14 in those games).

Raiders vs Rams

Spread: Rams -6.5

Total: 43.5

You have to feel bad for the Raiders’ players. Ok, maybe not. It is the Raiders, after all. They traded their best offensive player, Davante Adams, to the Jets and there is speculation they are looking to deal their best defensive player, Maxx Crosby, as well. If ownership has given up on them, why shouldn’t the players give up, too? Enjoy your new team, Tom Brady. You got work to do. Let's goooooooooo!

Rams win, but, disregard what I wrote above for a moment, the Raiders manage to cover. The Rams aren’t healthy enough to blow out anybody right now. I'll take the over, though. I like O'Connell and you know Stafford can put up some points.

CAR vs WASH

Spread: WASH -9

Total: 51.5

Wow! I didn’t think I would see Washington as a nine-point favorite against any team this soon. Rookie Jayden Daniels more than held his own against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Carolina is back to being Carolina. They can only stand on the sidelines and sit in their owners' suites and watch and see what a difference hitting on a top quarterback in the draft can make.

Washington wins and covers. This is a chance for the Commanders to stamp their status as playoff contenders. The point total is a big number and Washington may come close to it on their own. I will take the under as I don’t think the Panthers can do their part.

KC vs. SF

Spread: SF -1.5

Total: 46.5

This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, and also the one in 2020. Kyle Shanahan has something to prove. Andy Reid has owned him. It is always weird seeing Kansas City as an underdog. San Fran has been living off its name so far this season, in regards to betting lines.

KC wins outright. It isn’t about the Chiefs’ offense anymore. Their strength is their defense, but Mahomes is always there if they need to break the glass in case of emergency. I think this game should be easily under.

NYJ vs PITT

Spread: NYJ -2.5

Total: 38.5

Another prime time game for the Jets? And what have they done to make them worthy of being a favorite on the road against the (4-2) Steelers? Maybe it is the talk of Russell Wilson, for whatever reason, replacing Justin Fields at starting quarterback. It might be the only chance for the Jets to win.

Give me Pittsburgh to win outright. Let me assure you I am picking with my head, but my heart also wants to see the Jets’ season go down in flames. I will take the over as Pittsburgh screwed me last week with two meaningless late scores.

BALT vs TB

Spread: BALT -3.5

Total: 49.5

Now this is a worthy prime time game. Baker Mayfield has had a fine season, but he hasn’t been able to put together back to back 200+ yard passing games. He had 325 last week. He will need to buck the trend if Tampa expects to keep up with Lamar.

Baltimore wins and covers. It’ll be a close cover. I'm thinking something like, 34-27 or 34-30. Taking the over should be a sure bet.

Chargers vs Cardinals

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Total: 43.5

It looks like Justin Herbert may be fully healthy after dealing with an ankle injury for the last few weeks. The Chargers are coming off a good road victory in Denver while the Cardinals laid an egg on the road in Green Bay. Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion in that game so it looks like he won’t be available.

Chargers win and cover. Old friend Chad Ryland replaces injured Matt Prater as Arizona’s kicker. That should make the difference. Give me the over, as well.

NE vs Jacksonville

Spread: JAX -5.5

Total: 42.5

As per usual, I will end with the Patriots’ game. This one will be in London so get the pancake syrup ready. Things got a little sticky late Wednesday afternoon when word spread that Drake Maye was going to have an MRI on his knee, but NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported it is “no great concern.” Easy for him to say. This is a winnable game for the Patriots. Let’s see if they can build off of last week’s promise.

I like the Patriots to win outright, maybe even if Jacoby Brissett plays. Yes, I am thinking with my head. Jacksonville is such a mess that there is talk of Mac Jones replacing Trevor Lawrence. Enough said. Give me the under in London.