Week 5 picks: Dallas-Pitt, Arizona-SF, Buffalo-Houston should be fun. NE-Miami, not so much.
Seems like everyone nowadays has a betting video on YouTube or online blog so I asked myself, "Why not me?" This could be fun. I’ve been picking Patriots’ games for over a year now on this blog, but now I am going to expand my horizons and look at the entire league.
Now that we are in Week 5, we have a quarter of the season under our belt. We should have enough data and a good idea who teams are. As an example, we should know that the Patriots aren’t going to score more than 17 points per game as long as Jacoby Brissett is the starting quarterback. We also know Brissett won’t throw for over 150 yards, unless Antonio Gibson bails him out.
So for your betting pleasure, here are my Week 5 picks for you smart investors to, I believe the term is, fade:
Jets vs Vikings MIN -2.5 Points 40.5
I still can’t believe the Jets lost to Bo Nix and Denver last week. At one point, midway through the game, Nix somehow had -8 yards passing on 4 completions. This game is being played in London. Will Sam Darnold come back down to earth and will the Vikings lose their first game of the year. Not this week.
Minnesota wins and covers. I'll take the under on points. Those international games are usually a mess. I am going to be watching to see if rookie Braelon Allen continues to take carries away from Breece Hall.
Panthers vs Bears CHI -4 Points 40.5
I am on record as saying Caleb Williams will be a bust. Jayden Daniels definitely looks like he should have been the first player taken in this year’s draft. Bryce Young was the first pick taken two years ago and he has already been benched for, back from the dead, Andy Dalton. I thought Dalton retired years ago. These are two teams suffering from buyer's remorse
Chicago wins but Carolina covers, and give me the under.
Ravens vs Bengals BAL -2.5 Points 48.5
Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are finding their rhythm. Henry had 199 yards rushing last week against Buffalo, and that comes on the heels of rushing for 151 yards the week before against Dallas. The Bengals have been slow to wake up this year, but Burrow and Chase are beginning to warm up, but they aren’t in Baltimore’s league yet.
Ravens win and cover. I’ll take the over on points.
Browns vs Commanders WASH -3 Points 43.5
Another battle of highly drafted quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels is completing a ridiculous 82.1% of his passes through his first four games in the NFL. It blows my mind. Deshaun Watson looks like he is on the back nine of his career. These are two quarterbacks heading in different directions. Washington is due for some regression, though, and Cleveland’s defense may cause Daniels some problems.
Give me Cleveland to upset, and this game will be under.
Colts vs Jaguars JAX -3 Points 45.5
Jacksonville owns the Colts. Anthony Richardson is questionable for Indy. Jacksonville is 0-4 and they need a win bad in order to save some jobs.
Jaguars win and cover. Give me the under.
Bills vs Texans HOU -1 Points 47.5
A bit surprising to me that the Bills are underdogs in this one, despite the game being in Houston. This should be the most entertaining game of the week and these two may face each other again in the playoffs. I think Houston sends a message.
Houston wins and covers. I will take the under on points, but barely. I am thinking something like 27-20.
Raiders vs Broncos DEN -3 Points 35.5
This game equals the Patriots-Miami game for lowest points total betting line. Sad. Despite both teams being 2-2, they are both awful. Crazy to think one of these two teams will be 3-2 after this. This is a tough one to pick.
I’ll take the Raiders to win outright and points to still make it under.
Cardinals vs 49ers SF -7 Points 48.5
Buffalo-Houston may be the best game of the week, but this may be the most entertaining. Does that make sense? This one will have the most scoring. The 49ers are coming off a bye week. OK, they played the Patriots last week, but it was like a scrimmage for them. It might as well have been a bye week. San Fran is pretty banged up. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s chemistry is growing.
Give me the 49ers to win but Arizona to cover. I'll take the over in this one. I’m thinking somewhere in the ballpark of 31-27.
Packers vs Rams GB -3 Points 48.5
This game has the same point total betting line as SF-Arizona? Am I missing something? The Rams are incredibly banged up. Jordan Love is playing himself back into shape after missing some time due to injury. This one shouldn’t be close.
GB wins and covers, easily. This game should be way under.
Giants vs Seahawks SEA -7 Total 42.5
It amazes me that Geno Smith and Seattle have the best passing offense in the NFL. The Giants don’t have the firepower to keep up, especially if Malik Nabers can’t go.
Seattle wins but the Giants manage to cover. I’ll take the under.
Cowboys vs Steelers PIT -2.5 Total 43.5
I love seeing these two classic uniforms on the same field together. It brings back some great memories. The Steelers slipped up last week and lost to the Colts after winning their first three games with Justin Fields as their starting quarterback. How many teams are kicking themselves right now for not offering the Bears something better than a sixth-round pick for Fields? The Patriots should be one of them.
It must be getting hot under the collar for Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy. Bill Belichick is lurking in the shadows.
This is going to be a tough battle.
Pitt will win a tight one. Dallas covers. The total will be under. I am thinking something like 20-19.
Saints vs Chiefs KC -6 Total 43.5
A good one for Monday night. Kansas City just keeps on winning. The Saints started out like a ball of fire, but have come back down to earth. The Chiefs will be without WR Rashee Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco. David Carr is not intimidated playing in KC. I have to believe Mahomes and the refs find a way for the Chiefs to win on prime time.
KC wins, but the Saints cover. I will go over by a smidge, something like 24-20.
Dolphins vs Patriots MIA -1 Total 35.5
I saved the best game for last. Just kidding. What a snooze fest this one will be. I think I will take a couple hour drive up north to see the foliage and skip out on this game. I don’t need that kind of torture. God bless the fans that spent their hard earned money on going to this, or maybe any, game at Gillette. Take all the unders, folks, except Tyler Huntley rushing yards.
This one could, literally, be a coin flip so give me a second to find a quarter. OK, here goes…
Dolphins to win and cover. Points definitely under. If you want to bet ALT points, I would go as low as 30.5 on this one. One of the reasons I picked Miami is so New England wins. Let's see if it works. It is bound to.
Good luck, all.