Week 4 prediction: Are the Cowboys vulnerable?

This game was pegged as an easy L for the Patriots coming into the season. The Cowboys were considered Super Bowl contenders and the Patriots, well, were not. The Cowboys are coming home after being humiliated and humbled by the worst team in football, the Arizona Cardinals, 28-16. The Patriots had to hold their breath on the final play to escape New York with a 15-10 victory over Zach Wilson and the Jets. So why do I have a feeling the Patriots could win this one?

Arizona may have exposed the Cowboys. The Cardinals rushed for 222 yards against the Cowboys. The Cowboys were 1-5 in the red zone. The Cowboys offensive line is banged up. The Patriots offensive line is slowly coming together (minus Cole Strange, which is not necessarily a bad thing). The Cowboys are without one of their big playmakers on defense, cornerback Trevon Diggs. The Patriots’ head coach is Bill Belichick. The Cowboys’ head coach is Mike McCarthy. The Patriots will be playing in a dome for the first time this year after playing in dreary conditions in two of their first three games.

Have I convinced you yet? I am coming around.

Can the Patriots replicate the Cardinals’ rushing performance against the Cowboys? Is Rhamondre Stevenson a better running back than James Conner? Yes. Will Ezekiel Elliott have extra motivation going into Dallas against his former team? Yes. Can the Patriots and Bill O’Brien exploit and gameplan against the Cowboys’ undisciplined defense? Yes. Are Trent Brown, David Andrews, and Mike Onwenu healthy? Yes.

This should be a big Rhamondre Stevenson game. He is due. The most rushing yards he has had in a game is 59. He is averaging 2.9 yards per carry, with hardly any of those yards coming after first contact. He has been dancing at the line of scrimmage and searching for holes. All these things have been uncharacteristic of Stevenson. Damien Harris had 101 yards rushing the last time the Patriots played the Cowboys in 2021. Stevenson should surpass that.

Mac Jones has looked remarkably good in the first three games this season despite having no weapons, a porous offensive line, and some lousy weather conditions. It hasn’t always been pretty, but he has been effective, floating his passes to the right spots, and even being able to throw on the run. Again, not pretty, but effective.

For Jones to be effective, the Patriots will have to be able to block all-World pass rusher, Micah Parsons. The Patriots used tight end Pharaoh Brown in the backfield at fullback a few times last week. It may be a good idea to do that again this Sunday. Ezekiel Elliott will be called upon to put a helmet on his former teammate. As great as Owings is, the Patriots can exploit his over-aggressiveness by running the ball right at him. They can also frustrate him with their quick passing attack.

The Patriots’ defense will look to be better than the last time they faced Dak Prescott when they gave up 445 yards passing to him only a couple of years ago. There are a few glaring differences this time from last time, however. Head coach Mike McCarthy has taken over offensive play calling duties from Kellen Moore who moved on to the Los Angeles Chargers prior to this season. Moore was aggressive and liked throwing the ball downfield. McCarthy is the opposite. He likes to grind out nine and ten play drives. He likes to play smash mouth, running the ball down defense’s throats. He also likes the old school West Coast offense of short, quick passes.

Prescott was tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown last year despite missing three games. He has thrown only one this year - that one coming last week. That is what McCarthy is looking for. That feeds right into the Patriots’ defensive game plan of bend but don’t break. The Cowboys rely on those long, time consuming drives. Unfortunately for them, they have been very weak in the red zone when they get there. The Cowboys rank 27th in the NFL with only a 40% TD rate in the red zone. The Patriots, surprisingly after last year, rank 5th at 71.43%. This will be the difference in the game. McCarthy’s offensive style almost eliminates any chance of the Cowboys blowing out the Patriots.

CeeDee Lamb had a huge game against the Patriots the last time they met. He had 9 catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns. Lamb benefited from being the number two receiver to Amari Cooper. Cooper was shut down in that game. Now Lamb is the number one. Belichick is known for taking away the one thing an offense does best. Belichick definitely has the counter to a team’s top receiver, single handedly, in defensive rookie of the month, Christian Gonzalez. The Cowboys do have decent weapons outside of Lamb in veteran Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup. The Patriots secondary is banged up. Jonathan Jones is out again. Marcus Jones is on IR. Fortunately, Myles Bryant has stepped up and shown improvement over previous seasons.

The Cowboys will be looking to rush the ball 40 times. They have the workhorse running back in Tony Pollard. He has rushed over 23 times in each of the last two games. He averages 5.0 yards per carry in his five-year career. He is the reason Zeke became expendable. The Patriots may be without their run stopper, Davon Godchaux. This will be a huge game for Ja’Whaun Bentley. He led the team with 13 tackles the last time New England played Dallas.

The Cowboys have always been known for their jumbo offensive lines, dating back to the days of Emmitt Smith. This week the Patriots have an opportunity. Worst case scenario the Cowboys may be down three of their starting offensive linemen. At best, they will be without their starting left tackle, and their center and right guard will be playing injured.

The weakened offensive line should create opportunities for their pass rushers, in theory. The Cowboys, however, rely on quick, short passes, so it will be tough for Judon, Uche, Barmore, and Keion White to get to Prescott. Prescott has one of the lowest air yardage per attempt in the NFL.

Prediction: Patriots 23, Cowboys 20

I can, clearly, hear the boo birds in Dallas in my head. I can feel the national debate next week asking if the Cowboys are overrated and if their season is done. I can hear the callers to Boston sports radio debating who the Patriots will be playing in the Super Bowl. It is the nature of fandom.

The truth lies somewhere in between. The Patriots have been battle tested going against some very tough competition their first three games. The Cowboys have played the Giants, Jets, and Cardinals in their first three games. The Patriots are a borderline playoff contender. The Cowboys are borderline Super Bowl contenders in a weak NFC.

This game will come down to who is most effective in the red zone. As stated above, the Cowboys are terrible in the red zone, and the Patriots defense is notorious for buckling down in short field situations.

The game will also come down to penalties. The Cowboys are 7th in the league in penalties with 24. The Patriots have committed 18. In a game which will come down to two teams grinding out drives, a penalty can be a drive killer. Both teams have shown the inability to complete big plays.

I expect Rhamondre Stevenson to rush for over 125 yards, which will include a 40+ yard run somewhere. Prescott will be held to less than 275 yards passing. I look for Kyle Duggar to get an interception on an errant slant pass by Prescott. Bentley will be the talk of the game. Chad Ryland will connect on three field goals and he will be the difference in the game. Mac Jones gets his first signature victory of his career.