Week 18 NFL picks: Minnesota-Detroit will end the NFL's regular season in explosive fashion
The final week of the regular season has arrived. There are many teams, including the New England Patriots – proud new owners of the #1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft – who can't wait to pack their bags after Sunday's game and put this season in the rear view.
Next week at this time there will be a lot of head coaches getting fired. Will Jerod Mayo be one of them? After last week's embarrassing performance, both on and off the field, I think the answer should be obvious. I mean – is it possible that Alex Van Pelt was brash enough to put Rhamondre Stevenson on the field on the opening series after Mayo was telling the media just minutes prior to the game that Stevenson would be benched and Antonio Gibson would get the start? Then you have players like Keon White and Demario Douglas saying there needs to be some kind of change. What change could they possibly be talking about? Hmmm.
What I don't want to change is my good fortune. Last week was a very good week for me. Beyond the game picks, rookie wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Ricky Pearsall came up huge on my player prop picks. I owe the two a dinner at Taco Bell.
Here were my results for the week on the game picks:
Moneyline: 14-2
ATS: 9-7
Over/under points: 8-8
For the year, I am:
Moneyline: 132-60 (68.75%)
ATS: 106-81-2
Points: 94-95
The final week of the season is always tricky. There aren't too many playoff implications to speak of, therefore many teams will be resting their starters.
Let's get to the final regular season games and the last time we will be seeing many of these teams. As an aside, I made many of these picks early in the week totally forgetting there were no Thursday night games this week, so I added some updates on some mid-week coaching decisions. The situation this week is very fluid so be careful when wagering for real.
Cleveland at Baltimore (-18) Total: 41.5
Baltimore wins and covers. Take the over.
Baltimore hasn't clinched the AFC North yet so they still have something to play for. Cleveland is just bad. At least Winston was entertaining. Bailey Zappe gets the nod in this one becoming the 40th starting QB the Browns have used since 1999.
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Total: 48.5
Bengals win and cover. Take the under.
The reason the Ravens haven't clinched the AFC North is because these Pittsburgh Steelers still have a chance at winning the division. The Bengals, however, may be the hottest team out of all three in the division. Give me Joe Burrow over Russell Wilson any day.
Carolina at Atlanta (-8) Total: 47.5
Atlanta wins, but Carolina covers. Take the over.
Well, Carolina looked promising for three or four weeks there. But now they have no Chuba Hubbard at running back. The growing chemistry between Bryce Young and Adam Thielen (5 catches, 110 yards, 2 TDs last Sunday) is encouraging for Carolina fans. The Falcons could win the NFC South if Tampa Bay somehow loses to New Orleans.
Washington (-3.5) at Dallas Total: 44.5
Dallas wins. Take the over.
Dallas was one of my two losses on the moneyline last week. I really thought they had a shot playing in Philly against Kenny Pickett. Boy, was I wrong. So what am I going to do? I am going to double down on Dallas. Washington has been winning a lot of close games, so I figure they are due to come up short one of these times.
Chicago at Green Bay (-8.5) Total: 40.5
Green Bay wins and covers. Take the over.
I think Caleb Williams is still shaking his head and muttering. It seemed like everytime the TV cameras focused on Williams against the Seahawks last Thursday night that is what he was doing. It has not been an impressive first year for the first overall pick. He will have to sit at his home (which I am sure is a luxurious one) and watch fellow rookie QBs Daniels and, most likely, Bo Nix play in the playoffs.
Houston at Tennessee (-1) Total: 38.5
Houston wins. Take the under.
When you see lines like this you have to ask yourself, "What does Vegas know?" Houston still has something to play for. They may be in the playoffs, but they need to work some things out. They have not looked good the second half of this season. The Titans don't want to win and they will be playing both Will Levis and Mason Rudolph in this one. Tony Pollard does have to rush for more than 83 yards and score two touchdowns to hit $450,000 in incentives.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-5.5) Total: 45.5
Jacksonville wins. Take the over.
Indy was the other team I got wrong on the moneyline last week. What the heck happened? Giving up 45 points to Drew Lock and the Giants in a must-win game for them? I can't believe I am going to say this, but if Drew Lock can put up those kind of numbers against this Indy defense, what will Mac Jones do? There – I said it.
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-3) Total: 38.5
Philadelphia wins and covers. Take the over.
Speaking of those juggernaut Giants. What were they thinking? They had the number one pick all wrapped up and they had to go and screw things up by winning.
Will Saquon Barkley want to go for Eric Dickerson's record? It is his for the taking. He only needs 101 yards. I think it will be his call. Nick Sirianni, I'm sure, would abide by his wishes. I'd go for it, but that's just me. You think anyone remembers Eric Dickerson didn't win a Super Bowl? But they know he is the single season rushing record holder.
Update: Barkley will bypass a shot at the rushing record and sit in the finale.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-13) Total: 43.5
Tampa Bay wins and covers. Take the over.
Baker Mayfield showed no mercy on the Carolina Panthers. What do you think he will do to the under-manned Saints? The guy is on a mission. I see at least four touchdown passes. Both he and Mike Evans have big contract incentives they are closing in on, as well. New Orleans has no chance. If Tampa wins, they win the NFC South.
Kansas City at Denver (-9.5) Total: 38.5
Denver wins, but KC covers. Take the over.
Do the bookmakers think the Chiefs aren't going to show up to the game? I can understand they will be sitting Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the other starters, but their backups aren't that bad. Denver still needs this game to make the playoffs, but it won't be easy.
LA Chargers (-5.5) at Las Vegas Total: 41.5
Chargers win and cover. Take the over.
The bookmakers are showing respect to the Raiders here. The Chargers annihilated the Patriots last week, yet they are only five-point favorites against the (4-12) Raiders? The Chargers are in the playoffs as a wild card, but they are playing to move up in seeds. It could mean the difference between playing the struggling Houston Texans or playing the explosive Baltimore Ravens in the first round of the playoffs.
Seattle (-3) at LA Rams Total: 39.5
The Rams win. Take the over.
This is another strange line. Maybe Vegas is giving bettors some Christmas gifts this week. The Rams could be as high as the third seed in the NFC which would mean a home game against Green Bay or Washington. The alternative is not as appealing as they could fall to the third seed and have to face Minnesota or Detroit. The Rams should be trying to win this game as well as work on kick starting their passing offense which has been disappointing in recent weeks.
Update: The Rams announced they will be starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Matthew Stafford.
Miami (-1) at NY Jets Total: 39.5
Miami wins and covers. Take the over.
When it comes to the Jets, I don't want to see their season end. Believe it or not, Miami still has a chance at creeping into the playoffs.
Update: Tua is unlikely to play with a hip injury.
San Francisco at Arizona (-2.5) Total: 44.5
San Francisco wins. Take the over.
These are two teams that, midway through the season, looked like they would be in the playoffs. Injuries derailed the 49ers, and, well, Arizona is just Arizona.
Update: Brock Purdy is out. Joshua Dobbs will start for the 49ers.
Minnesota at Detroit (-3) Total: 57.5
Minnesota wins. Take the (I can't believe I'm saying this with this high of a number) over?
That is a big point total, but the Lions and 49ers just finished putting up 74 points on Monday night. The Vikings' offense is even more explosive than the 49ers. This could be a fun betting game as both teams have plenty of incentive to keep the pedal to the metal. Load up on your "over" player props in hopes of cashing in huge on the last regular season game for the NFL this year. The NFL couldn't have scheduled it any better.
A win by either team clinches the number one seed in the NFC and home field advantage throughout. A loss, remarkably, would drop one of these 14-win teams all the way down to the fifth-seed and make them go on the road.
Buffalo (-3) at New England Total: 38.5
Buffalo wins and covers. Take the over.
What a letdown for me, after being all excited looking ahead to one of the best regular season games in recent memory, I have to end it with writing about the New England Patriots and a Josh Allen-less Buffalo Bills.
It sounds like Josh Allen will start the game for the Bills. I could see him handing the ball off on the first play of the game and then head for the sidelines for the remainder of the game. He has a consecutive game streak going that he wants to keep intact.
Even with their backups in the game, the Bills should handle the Patriots with ease. New England has checked out. They gave it their best in Buffalo two weeks ago, but, as the song goes, their best wasn't good enough. On the bright side, we may see Joe Milton play.
Buffalo wins, 26-16.
Update: Jerod Mayo says Drake Maye will start despite Maye taking a big hit to his head in the Chargers game and, also, injuring his throwing hand. Mayo says the team will be playing to win. It makes sense for Mayo and Alex Van Pelt because they are coaching for their jobs. It doesn't make sense for the franchise, though, as a loss locks up the first overall pick.
