Week 17 NFL picks:Time to shut down Drake Maye? Jayden Daniels pulls another win out of his hat

I am embarrassed to show my face this week. Good thing I'm a writer. I watch a lot of YouTube videos of people making their NFL picks. That's my research, people. I often laugh to myself when I see some of these bigger named NFL "experts" go over their previous week's picks and they sheepishly reveal they went something like 5-11. Experts? HA!!

For me, a .500 week is disappointing. Well, last week I came out one game over .500 in my picks straight up, however, I was 5-10-1 against the spread. Looking on the bright side, at least I wasn't 5-11.

I wasn't much better on the over/under points. I was 6-9 and, more disappointingly, I fell below .500 for the season. Here's a look at my season stats:

Moneyline: 118-58

ATS: 97-74-2

Points: 86-87 (Ouch!)

This time of the year is difficult to pick games. Some teams are trying, some aren't. Some playoff teams are resting their players. Some of the worst teams are tanking, even though they may not admit it. Some players have, already, checked out on the season.

If you had a lot of player props on the Packers Monday night against the Saints you know what I am talking about. You would expect to hit a lot of the overs when your players' team wins, 34-0, but you would be wrong in this case.

For many teams there are only two games left so let's get to it. We will have NFL games almost every day.

Kansas City (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Total: 43.5

KC wins and covers. Take the under.

Screw you, Patrick Mahomes. High ankle sprain, my ass. He made us look like a fool right off the bat with a 15-yard touchdown run. It didn't take me long before I, immediately, regretted picking Houston. Even more embarrassing, I put money down on Houston early in the week when they were favored by two and it was almost a sure thing Mahomes wouldn't play. Pittsburgh's offense just isn't the same without George Pickens.

Baltimore (-5.5) at Houston Total: 46.5

Baltimore wins and covers. Take the over.

Speaking of Houston, hi there. I hope Baltimore crushes you for letting me down so bad last week, even if Mahomes did play. Mahomes doesn't play defense. CJ Stroud had two interceptions and has been disappointing this year. Joe Mixon's days of rushing for over 100 yards per game seem a distant memory. He has rushed for under 60 yards in four of his last six games. In two of those games he had less than 25 yards rushing!!!

Seattle (-3.5) at Chicago Total: 43.5

Seattle wins and covers. Take the over.

I hate the Bears. Caleb Williams either throws for over 300 yards or less than 200 in a game. There is no in between with this guy and there is no rhyme or reason when he will do it. Seattle is 5-1 on the road. All four of Chicago's wins have come at home.

Denver at Cincinnati (-3.5) Total: 49.5

Cincy wins, but Denver covers. Take the under.

Denver clinched a playoff spot last week with their come from behind win against the Chargers. I wasn't happy about it. Cincy is still alive despite their eight losses. Maybe if they would have woken up just a little bit earlier this season. I am counting on a let down from Denver. Cincy needs to win.

Arizona at LA Rams (-6.5) Total: 47.5

Rams win and cover. Take the over.

Arizona blew it last week. They somehow gave up 36 points to Carolina. The loss knocked them out of the playoffs. The Rams keep winning but their passing offense is struggling. Cooper Kupp only has three catches in the last two games. That's because he had none two weeks ago. Kyren Williams is the unsung hero of this offense. What a workhorse!

NY Jets at Buffalo (-11) Total: 45.5

Buffalo wins and covers. Take the over.

I don't even want to talk about Buffalo right now. I'm not ready. How does Josh Allen score a million touchdowns the previous two weeks and he couldn't exploit the hapless Patriots' defense?

Las Vegas (-1) at New Orleans Total: 37.5

The Raiders win and cover. Take the over.

This time of the year provides some stinker games. This is one of them.

Indianapolis (-8) at NY Giants Total: 40.5

Indy wins and covers. Take the over.

Jonathan Taylor ran for 218 yards last week. More importantly, he didn't drop the ball before he got to the goal line on his three touchdown runs. The Giants are just a mess, and have been all year.

Dallas at Philadelphia (-9) Total: 40.5

Dallas wins. Take the over.

You might want to jump on this one early if you want to gamble Jalen Hurts doesn't pass concussion protocol this week. Backup Kenny Pickett has sore ribs. Dallas is playing better. All Cooper Rush does is win.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-8) Total: 49.5

Tampa wins, but Carolina covers. Take the under.

Brutal loss for the Bucs last week in Dallas. Don't blame Baker Mayfield, though. What a competitor. The play that exemplifies him as a competitor is when he completed a short pass to his receiver, but his receiver fumbled the ball ten yards further downfield, and Mayfield recovered it. It is too bad he doesn't have all his offensive weapons healthy. This would be a scary team to face in the playoffs. Speaking of scary, Carolina is no pushover right now.

Tennessee (-1) at Jacksonville Total: 39.5

Jacksonville wins. Take the over.

Oh, I have a lot of hatred to go around this week after my subpar performance last week. Mac Jones is near the top of the list. Not only did he not manage to beat the Raiders, but he didn't throw an interception. How is that possible? I am a glutton for punishment so I am going with him again. He is just the gift that keeps on giving (pain).

Miami (-6.5) at Cleveland Total: 39.5

Miami wins and covers. Take the over.

Miami feasts on bad teams. They are in the same boat as the Bengals with eight losses but still an outside chance at the playoffs. It won't matter if they get there. They can't beat good teams.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-1) Total: 48.5

Minnesota wins and covers. Take the over.

Green Bay is coming off a bye week. Ok, they did play, but it was a 34-0 blowout and players like Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love got some valuable rest at this time of the year. The Vikings have, quietly, won eight in a row again after a two-game slump following winning their first five. Who would have thought they would be here after losing Kirk Cousins and signing Sam Darnold? I'll tell you – nobody. And if they say they did, they are lying.

Atlanta at Washington (-4) Total: 47.5

Washington win, but Atlanta covers. Take the over.

Speaking of Kirk Cousins, we turn our attention to the Atlanta Falcons. Cousins knew the writing was on the wall on draft day when the Falcons picked Michael Penix, Jr. I don't think anyone expected the end to come this soon, and, if they say they did, they are lying, too. Washington loves playing close games, and they love winning them, too. Penix against Daniels should be fun.

Detroit (-4) at San Francisco Total: 50.5

Detroit wins and covers. Take the over.

OK, Vegas bookmakers, what do you know? I feel like Detroit should be favored by, at least, 6.5 in this one. The point total, I feel, should be around 53. Jared Goff answered any reservations I may have had about him playing outside last week in Chicago. San Francisco is down to their fourth-string running back. Brock Purdy is not the kind of quarterback you can expect to do it all by himself.

LA Chargers (-4) at New England Total: 42.5

The Chargers win and cover. Take the over.

You don't fool me, New England. This spread is a lot lower than it should be based on the Patriots playing it close in Buffalo. The Patriots pumped themselves up for that game. They always do against Buffalo. That was their Super Bowl. Expect a complete let down this week against the Chargers. Drake Maye took some shots in last week's game in the cold weather. He looked pretty gimpy towards the end. I will say it again this week and next, the Patriots should shut him down. He has nothing left to prove. I really don't want to be in a position to say, "I told ya so."

Chargers win, 30-17.