Week 13 NFL predictions: Patriots last chance for a win, Eagles-Ravens should be a beauty
When I went back and reviewed my picks from Week 12 I was like, “Uh oh.” I was under .500 on picking winners, but when I checked my picks against the spread, I found myself going, “win, win, win, win.” I think I won my first six or seven games against the spread before struggling with the late games on Sunday and the Monday night game.
It started with the Steelers losing in the snow to Cleveland on Thursday night. Somehow the game went over after a scoreless first quarter and THEN the wind and snow picked up. To add salt to the wounds, several player props went over despite the bad weather conditions. I watched the first quarter, intently, before stepping out to do some errands. When I got back for the start of the second half, I saw the heavy snow and white out conditions and I made the mistake of thinking all my under bets were locks. Why do we bet on sports? You can analyze, analyze, analyze, and analyze and it doesn’t matter. Logic doesn't matter.
I also wasn’t happy to find out after I published my picks that Brock Purdy wouldn’t be playing against Green Bay. That sucked, too.
Here were my results from last week:
Moneyline: 6-7
Against the spread (ATP): 9-4
Over/under points: 8-5
For the season:
Moneyline: 75-40
ATP: 49-36-1
Point total: 60-54
This week we’ve got football almost every day. It should be a fun weekend. Let's get to my picks:
CHI @ DET (-10) Total: 48.5
The Bears have turned things around after a nightmare performance against the Patriots three weeks ago. It hasn’t resulted in any wins, but it has helped relieve some trepidation about drafting Caleb Williams. The Lions are just waiting for the playoffs to start.
Keep taking Detroit and the points until they prove otherwise. This should be a 41-28 type game. Caleb will have over 300 yards passing.
NYG @ DAL (-3.5) Total: 37.5
The Giants are in complete disarray. The Cowboys are just in disarray. It was nice of the NFL to schedule the two worst games on Thanksgiving during the day.. The Giants are down to their third string quarterback, or is it their second string quarterback after going to their third string quarterback first?
Dallas wins and covers. The under bet seems a “Lock.”
MIA @ GB (-3.5) Total: 46.5
I was wanting to pick Miami in this game, but then I saw the forecast. Temps are supposed to e below 30 degrees with the possibility of snow flurries. I just don’t learn. I made the same mistake of changing my mind on some plays in the Pitt-Cleveland game due to weather concerns. Tua has an awful track record in sub-40 degree games.
Green Bay wins and covers. I will still take the over, but I felt a lot better about that earlier in the week.
Raiders @ KC (-12.5) Total: 42.5
I heard an analyst on one of the numerous sports betting blogs on YouTube describe Kansas City as a team that likes to play with their prey. I found it to be a perfect analogy. My father used to have an outside cat. He loved the idea of having an outside cat so it could "take care" of the mice in the garden. The problem was the cat would catch the mice but then toss it around and just play with it. It pissed my dad off when he saw that. The Chiefs are the same way. They always seem to win, but they keep the other team in the game the whole way.
The Chiefs win, but the Raiders cover. Aidan O’Connell takes over at QB for the Raiders for the injured and ineffective Garden Minshew. Take the under.
Chargers (-2.5) @ ATL Total: 47.5
The Chargers let me down against the Ravens on Monday night. The Falcons have been letting me down all year. I would stay away from this game.
If you put a gun to my head, I would take the Chargers and the points. Also take the over. These are two explosive offenses, but you never know from week to week how explosive they will be.
PITT @ CIN (-3) Total: 46.5
Hard to believe Cincy is a favorite in this one.
Give me Pittsburgh to win. I would be more confident in taking the under if it was 47.5, but I will go with the under anyway.
ARZ @ MIN (-3.5) Total: 45.5
Arizona let me down last week. Not only did they lose, but they didn’t put up any points. Minnesota has been on a downward trend for a while. Isn’t picking games supposed to get easier the longer the season goes on? Some teams have me more baffled now then at the beginning of the season.
I am still on the Arizona bandwagon, but I don’t feel confident after their complete failure on the road last week in Seattle. Take the over.
SEA (-2) @ NYJ Total: 41.5
The Jets still keep getting way too much credit from Vegas. The Jets are one team I have had pegged all season.
Seattle wins and covers. Take the under.
TEN @ WASH (-5.5) Total: 44.5
Washington’s offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is frequently ridiculed for his teams getting off to fast starts and then fading at the end. It looks like the ridicule is warranted.
I will take Tennessee to upset. I feel better about taking the under.
HOU (-5) @ JAX Total: 43.5
CJ Stroud gives credence to the concept of a sophomore slump. Jacksonville is just really bad, and they are even worse if Mac Jones has to start.
Houston wins and covers. Take the under. This feels like the game the Texans had in Foxboro against the Patriots.
Rams (-2.5) @ NO Total: 49.5
The Rams are another team I have a hard time figuring out. The Saints are like a snake that can perk up at any time and bite.
The Rams should win and cover. This game should go over easily.
TB (-6) @ CAR Total: 46.5
If they gave out a separate MVP award for teams that are under .500, Baker Mayfield would win in a landslide. Carolina is playing better, which should disappoint fans hoping for a top-five draft pick.
Tampa wins, but Carolina covers. Give me the under. I’m thinking, 20-16.
PHI @ BAL (-3) Total: 50.5
Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley may very well be the official league MVP. 255 yards rushing last week? Are you kidding me.
The Eagles are right there with Detroit and Kansas City as the best teams in the NFL. What a difference from last year when the team collapsed in the second half.
The Ravens were the Eagles a few weeks ago. It looked like no one could beat the dynamic duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. But they haven't been nearly as dominant in recent weeks and their defensive flaws have risen to the surface. That is why it is so important to peak at the right time and not to peak too early. That might be the case with Baltimore. This will be the game of the week.
I will take the Eagles to win. I won’t make the same mistake of underestimating them like I did last week against the Rams. They are just more of a complete team than Baltimore. The point total is too high despite the two high-powered offenses. Take the under.
SF @ BUF (-7) Total: 44.5
The wheels have come off for San Francisco. Buffalo is coming off a bye week. Snow is in the forecast for Sunday night in Buffalo.
Buffalo wins and covers. I am thinking blowout in this one. Buffalo might approach the point total on their own. Give me the over.
CLE @ DEN (-5) Total: 41.5
Kind of a stinker for a Monday night game. Wait a minute – is this two consecutive prime time games for Cleveland. Why? Denver continues their surprise march to the playoffs.
Denver wins and covers, unless there is snow in the forecast to save Cleveland again. I’ll take the under in, what I expect to be, a boring affair.
IND (-2.5) @ NE Total: 42.5
It has been one step forward and three steps back for the Patriots. What was that last week? I think Indianapolis runs all over the Patriots. I see at least 50+ rushing yards for Anthony Richardson and 80+ for Jonathan Taylor. The loss of Ja'Whaun Bentley has been an undersold story this year for the Patriots' defense.
This might be the last legit chance for a win for the Patriots this season, but they don't get it. Indy wins and covers. Vegas has been slow to catch on to how bad the Patriots' defense is and how much better their offense has been with Drake Maye. Take the over. I predict the final score to be around 27-21.