Week 11 picks: Could the Rams-Patriots game harken back to 2001?

Week 10 was a beauty for me. I went 10-4 in all three categories. My season totals are now:

Moneyline:  61-27

Against the spread:  49-36-1

Point total O/U: 45-42

It feels good to get over .500 in the point total betting. That was bothering me. Week 11 has some big matchups so let’s get to it.

WASH @ PHI (-4)  Total: 49.5

This is a battle for the NFC East lead. No, it’s not Dallas vs Philadelphia. It’s the Washington Commanders against the Eagles. Both teams come in 7-2. The Eagles demolished the aforementioned Cowboys last week, 34-6. The Commanders lost a heartbreaker against the Steelers at home. Philadelphia is rolling. Washington may be coming down to earth. Jayden Daniels isn’t running as much as he was in the beginning of the year (only 5 yards on 3 carries last week). I think he is more hurt than people know.

Philadelphia wins, but Washington covers. I’ll take the under. Phily is going to take a lot of time off the clock by dominating with their running game.

GB (-5) @ CHI  Total: 40.5

That was one of the uglier offensive performances you’ll ever see by the Bears last week against the Patriots. Caleb Williams got sacked nine times on his way to losing his second matchup against top drafted rookie quarterbacks. It has people in Chicago questioning if they picked the right guy. I told ya.

Green Bay rolls. They cover. I think Caleb recovers a little bit, despite a new offensive coordinator, and contributes just enough to get this game to cover the over.

JAX @ DET (-14)  Total: 46.5

That’s right – a fourteen-point spread… in the NFL. I was rooting for Mac Jones last week, but he was bad (14-22, 111 yards, 2 INTs). Detroit overcame a 23-7 deficit to defeat Houston last week. Jared Goff’s five interceptions last week is a concern, if you are looking for some fault with this Lions team.

Huge spread, but it’s not enough. Detroit wins and covers. Head coach Dan Campbell never takes his foot off the gas. Detroit may score 47 on their own. I’ll take the over, even if Jacksonville only musters a single touchdown.

MIN (-6) @ TEN  Total: 39.5

Hey, everybody, it’s the real Sam Darnold. Midnight may have struck for the former number three overall pick turned bust. He has thrown five interceptions in the last two games. The Vikings haven’t looked right in the last four games after starting out 5-0.

Minnesota wins, but Tennessee covers. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Titans upset here at home in the outdoors.I’ll take the under – something like 20-17.

Raiders @ MIA (-7)  Total: 43.5)

Miami is coming off a big win against the Rams to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Raiders have lost five in a row. They are just getting no production out of their quarterback position.

Miami wins and covers at home. Time for them to start sending a message that they are back with Tua. I’ll take the under, though. The Raiders can’t put up enough points. I see something like 31-10.

CLE @ Saints (-1)  Total: 44.5

This is almost a 50/50 split on ESPN’s website as to which the money is going in this game. Both teams have won only one of their last five games. 

Tough one. Give me Cleveland and Jameis Winston returning to New Orleans to win. Nick Chubb should have shaken off the rust now and should be ready to carry a bigger load for the Browns. I’ll take the under as Chubb and Alvin Kamara should chew up a lot of the clock.

IND @ NYJ (-4)  Total: 43.5

Vegas continues to love the Jets. And I continue to love picking against them. It’s worked out well for me.

Give me the Colts and Anthony Richardson to beat the Jets on their turf. I’ll take the under. This should be good.

BALT (-3) @ PITT   Total:48.5

Another showdown of seven-win teams. I never expected the Steelers to be here, but they just manage to find ways to win no matter who their quarterback is. The Steelers’ defense has looked good in recent weeks against the likes of the Jets, Giants, Raiders, and Cowboys. Let’s see how they do against a real offense.

Baltimore wins a close one. Three points sounds just right. Can I pick a push? If you can buy the extra half point to make it 3.5, do it and take Pitt to cover. I’ll take the under – something like 23-20.

ATL @ DEN (-2.5)  Total: 44.5

I’m starting to really hate the Falcons. How could they lose to the Saints last week? It screwed up more than half my parlays. Denver has put up less than ten points in their last two games. I am a glutton for punishment.

Give me Atlanta to win. I’ll take the under.

SEA @ SF (-6.5)  Total: 48.5

This was one of my surest bets of the year when San Francisco beat Seattle in Seattle five weeks ago. I am even more sure of it now that the game is in San Francisco and that they are starting to get healthy.

SF wins and covers. I might want to go under in this game with Seattle possibly being without DK Metcalf and tight end Noah Fant.

KC @ BUF (-2)  Total: 45.5

There are some great games this week, but this is the best of them all. The Chiefs are 9-0. The Bills are 8-2. This game could be instrumental in deciding who has the home game if these two meet up in the AFC Championship game. This might be KC’s only shot at losing the rest of the way.

Buffalo wins and covers. If KC wins this game, they go 17-0 and I can’t have that as a Patriots’ fan. I’ll take the over, rather easily. Something like 27-24.

CIN @ Chargers (-1.5)  Total:47.5

The Chargers are only giving up a league-best 13.1 points per game. That’s a whole three points less than the second-place Steelers. So why do I feel the Bengals win this one?

The Bengals win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. If you want a sure bet, take the under in this one.

HOU (-7) @ DAL  Total: 42.5

Does anybody feel ad for Jerry Jones and the Cowboys? Yeah, me neither.

Houston wins and I just don’t see a way for Dallas to cover despite the Texans not being impressive in recent weeks. Houston covers. Give me the under. Just like last week, Dallas will be lucky to make it to double figures.

Rams (-5) @ NE  Total: 43.5

Could this be a repeat of 2001? Many say the turning point in that season was a Monday night game between these two teams in which the Greatest Show on Turf, Rams, struggled to beat the Patriots in Foxboro. The two would meet again in the Super Bowl that year and the rest is history.

Hey, if everyone talks about the Dolphins’ playoff hopes still being alive and they have the same record as the Patriots, then why not believe in Drake Maye and company.

Let’s go!!! Patriots win outright. Drake Maye outduels Matthew Stafford. Ja’Lynn Polk has his best game of the season. Patriots win, 27-24. Take the over.