Week 10 NFL picks

CIN @ BALT (-6.5)   Total: 52.5

The Bengals are hanging around the fringes of the playoff race. It would help if their two diva receivers were better team players. Ja’Marr Chase held out all camp looking for more money and the Bengals looked rusty in their first couple of games. Now Tee Higgins, who is set to hit free agency after the season, has been missing games for mysterious reasons. Protecting his investment? He is questionable for this game. Meanwhile, Baltimore got back on track last week after a little hiccup in Cleveland.

Baltimore wins, but Cincinnatti covers. It should be a high scoring game. Take the over. It’ll be something like, 30-27.

NYG (-6.5) @ CAR  Total: 40.5

There are several teams with only two wins. The Giants and Panthers are two of them. The Panthers shocked the Saints to get their second win. They can’t win two in a row, can they? It is the Giants they are playing this week so anything is possible.

The Ginats should win, but they shouldn’t be a touchdown favorite against anyone. Carolina covers. Wouldn’t shock me if they win. I think this will be a 21-20 or 23-20 type game so give me the over.

BUF (-4) @ IND    Total: 47.5

Joe Flacco looked real bad last week. He looked like someone just out to collect a paycheck. He looked like what a 39-year-old quarterback should look like. Buffalo rolls.

Buffalo wins and covers, easily. The game should go over as Buffalo should get at least 34 of it on their own.

DEN @ KC (-8)    Total: 41.5

Denver may have been fooling people when they went into Baltimore with a 5-3 record, but their last three wins were against the Panthers,the Raiders, and a depleted Saints team. They were revealed for who they are when they got crushed by Baltimore, 41-10. It doesn’t get any easier as now they have to go to Kansas City.

Kansas City wins, but they always manage to tease the other team into thinking they have a chance. Denver loses, 20-13. Take the under. These are two excellent defenses.

ATL (-4) @ Saints  Total: 46.5

The Saints needed to beat Carolina to keep any playoff hopes alive. They should have beat the Panthers. It should have been their “get right” game with Derek Carr coming back from injury.  Atlanta keeps rolling along, scoring 26 or more points in five of their last six games, including a 26-24 victory over the Saints in late September.

Atlanta wins and covers. If Atlanta scores their customary 26 points, that means the Saints only need to score three touchdowns against a bad Atlanta defense. Give me the over.

SF (-6.5) @ TB    Total: 50.5

San Francisco is slowly getting healthier.  Christian McCaffrey is eligible to come off IR for this game and, as I write this, Adam Schefter is reporting that head coach Kyle Shanahan is expecting him to play. Every week my admiration for Baker Mayfield keeps going up. He almost pulled off the upset (that I predicted) against Kansas City on Monday night.

I am going to roll with Tampa Bay again. Baker Mayfield works his magic. San Francisco is still out of sync. I’ll take the under. Purdy will have a couple of interceptions.

PITT @ WASH (-2.5)  Total: 44.5

Pitt’s defense has held the last four opponents to 20 points or less. They will be tested against Jayden Daniels. Or will Jayden Daniels be the one being tested?

The Steelers win. Take the over.

MIN (-7) @ JAX   Total: 44.5

This spread has increased by almost three points since Monday. The reason is Trevor Lawrence is questionable to play due to a left arm/shoulder injury. That would mean Mac Jones might play.

Minnesota wins, but Jacksonville covers. I am rooting for Mac. Take the over.

TEN @ Chargers (-7)  Total: 38.5

The Titans ruined another one of my upset specials when they ruined what would have been a great comeback story for Drake Maye. Jim Harbaugh’s defense is their calling card. It is always nice having Justin Herbert in your back pocket just in case. They won’t need him in this one.

The Chargers win and cover. This should be a great chance to help the Chargers springboard into the second half.

PHI (-7) @ DAL   Total: 41.5

Not much needs to be said here. Dallas is done. Dak Prescott is out for the year. Philadelphia is hitting their stride.

Philadelphia will enjoy laying it on their rivals and putting the nail in their coffin. I’ll take the under. Dallas may not score more than 10 points.

NYJ (-2) @ ARZ    Total: 46.5

I’m riding Arizona the rest of this year. The Jets got my week off to a bad start last week by beating Houston last Thursday night. They still failed to impress me.

Arizona wins. I’ll take the under.

DET (-3.5) @ HOU   Total: 48.5

Detroit just keeps rolling. Like I mentioned above, the Texans were very disappointing against the Jets. It has made me second guess this Houston team. Joe Mixon is something else, though. I’m having doubts about C.J. Stroud and how effective he can be without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. He hasn’t looked good.

Detroit keeps rolling. I think they beat Houston by double figures. This game goes over the point total.

MIA @ LA Rams (-1)   Total: 50.5

The Rams are on fire. They’ve won three in a row and are getting healthy. They’ve weathered the storm and have come out a hardened, tested, dangerous team. The Dolphins have lost three in a row. Tua can’t save this sinking ship.

The Rams win a high scoring game. Take the over.

NE @ CHI (-6)   Total: 38.5

Crazy to think the Patriots would have had a realistic shot at a three game winning streak. I am all-in on Drake Maye. He builds off his great finish to the Titans’ game.

The Patriots win. This game goes under. Caleb Williams struggles again in a matchup of top three draft picks.