Week 12: Are the Ravens contenders or pretenders? Lions keep roaring
I was proud of a few of my picks in Week 11 and then others I was like “what was I thinking?” I was spot on about the Colts upsetting the Jets, although it came down to the last minute. I was right about the Bills giving the Chiefs their first, and possibly the last, loss of the year. I predicted the Lions would cover the over on points on their own. I was feeling pretty good about my upset pick of the Patriots beating the Rams right up to the point Drake Maye threw an interception on New England’s last drive.
On the flip side, Green Bay needed to block a field goal at the end to eat the Bears. I was certain that was going to be a blow out. I overestimated the Browns, Ravens, and Falcons and underestimated the Chargers and Broncos.
In terms of point total predictions, a lot of the games were decided by the hook (the half point). Of course, as usual (woe is me), I was on the wrong end of most of them.
Here were my results for last week:
Moneyline: 8-6
ATS (against the spread): 6-8
Point total: 7-7
For the season, I’m still doing well:
Moneyline: 69-33 (67.7%)
ATS: 55-44-1 (55%)
Point total: 52-49 (51.5%)
Hard to believe we are already at Week 12 of the season. Let’s get to the games:
PITT (-3.5) @ CLE Total: 36.5
The Steelers beat the Ravens without scoring a touchdown. Classic Pittsburgh. The weather will be a factor in Cleveland on Thursday night – rain and wind. Cleveland’s run defense is awful. Taysom Hill had 138 yards rushing against them for crying out loud. Najee Harris should run for 150.
Pittsburgh wins, but Cleveland covers due to the weather. It will be a 13-10 type game. Take the under.
MINN (-3.5) @ CHI Total: 39.5
The Bears rebounded from their horrible performance against the Patriots to almost (should have) beat Green Bay. The Vikings continue to be unimpressive in recent weeks.
Minnesota wins, but take Chicago to cover. I’ll be taking the under.
DET (-7) @ IND Total: 49.5
I’m not sure what to make of this spread. Detroit covered a 14-point spread against Jacksonville. Is Jacksonville that much worse than Indianapolis? Possibly, but it is still Detroit and it’s still indoors.
Detroit wins and covers, dare I say, easily. You can’t go wrong betting on Detroit every week.
TB (-6) @ NYG Total: 41.5
The Daniel Jones era in New York is officially over. I keep wanting to say Danny DeVito, but it is Tommy DeVito taking over with Drew Lock as the backup. DeVito won three in a row as a starter last year.
Tampa wins and covers. They are coming off a much needed bye week. I was already leaning towards the under, but checking the forecast, I see it is supposed to be a bit windy so that seals the deal for me.
DAL @ WASH (-10) Total: 45.5
I’m still not used to seeing Washington as a double digit favorite. Jayden Daniels isn’t the same since injuring his ribs a few weeks back. I was very disturbed by the team’s energy level in their loss against the Eagles.
Washington wins, but Dallas covers. Washington should definitely put up points against a shoddy Dallas defense, and I think Cooper Rush can put up some points against Washington.
KC (-10.5) @ CAR Total: 42.5
It may come as a relief to the Chiefs to have gotten their first loss out of the way. I saw the toll the week-to-week pressure took on the 2007 Patriots. They aren’t blowing anybody out, though.
KC wins, but Carolina covers. It’s a lot of points and Bryce Young is playing a little better, and the team hasn’t rolled over like a lot of other bad teams have. Take the under.
TEN @ HOU (-7.5) Total: 40.5
I was confused by Houston’s game plan even though they blew out Dallas on Monday night. Maybe it is because I had a lot invested in Joe Mixon in that game. Houston barely used him for three and a half quarters. He could have rushed for 300 yards in that game.
Houston wins, but Tennessee covers. I’m not impressed with Houston ever since they routed New England. Take the over.
DEN (-6) @ Raiders Total: 41.5
OK, I am late to the Denver bandwagon, but I am here now. That probably means the Raiders win.
Denver wins and covers. If the Denver defense can shut down a talented Atlanta offense, I don’t see how the Raiders can put up enough points. I will take the over, though.
SF @ GB (-2) Total: 47.5
I think you would have gotten a lot of people at the beginning of the season to see this game as a preview of the NFC Championship. At this point, I think these are two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL. San Francisco’s window may be closed.
San Francisco wins, though. Green Bay is not impressing me at all. Take the over.
ARZ (-1) @ SEA Total: 47.5
I jumped on the Arizona bandwagon early on. It is getting a bit crowded now. Seattle has been a tough team to predict this year.
I will take Arizona and the over.
PHIL (-2.5) @ Rams Total: 48.5
I was very impressed by Matthew Stafford against the Patriots. He made some incredible throws. The guy is a no doubt Hall of Famer. Philadelphia is hitting on all cylinders. This should be a great game of two teams that are on the rise.
I am going with the Rams to win. I think Philly is due for a hiccup here soon. As a fan, I am hoping for the over and a fun, high scoring game.
BALT (-3) @ Chargers Total: 50.5
The battle of the Harbaughs. This will be a litmus test for Baltimore. The Steelers knocked the Ravens down a notch. Lamar Jackson needs to prove he can win big games. Justin Herbert is playing out of this world now that he is completely happy.
I like the Chargers in this one. I was that impressed with Herbert against the Bengals. I’ll take the over.
NE @ MIA (-7) Total: 46.5
In his own way, Drake Maye has been every bit as impressive as Stafford, Burrow, and Herbert, lately. It is made impressive because Maye has no weapons around him. He is doing it all by himself with no offensive line, no running game, no receivers, no defense, and no coaching. I think he is due for a letdown.
Miami wins and covers. If the Patriots could have pulled off the win against the Rams, this game would have been really, really interesting. I think this game goes over the point total which blows my mind because the lines have risen exponentially for Patriots’ games since the Jacoby Brissett days.