Week 9 picks: Chiefs lose their first game, Patriots two-game winning streak

It may not have been the best of weeks for me with my picks, particularly against the spread and over/under on the point totals. But I don’t care. I got the big one right. I nailed the Patriots upsetting the Jets. That’s all I care about.

I did well, straight up, again in Week 8, going 11-5.

I got a little too cute with spreads and I paid for it, going 5-11.

Teams lit up the scoreboard last week. Not a good thing when I took mostly unders. It seems like the offenses have, finally, caught up to the defenses. I went 6-10 on the point total over/under picks.

I’m still having a very solid season:

Money line  42-18

ATS (against the spread)  32-25-1

Point total   28-30

I need to buckle down to make sure last week was an aberration and doesn't become a trend. So let’s go!

HOU at NYJ (-2)  Total: 42.5

The wheels have completely come off the Jets. The Jets have run off the runway. The Jets are nosediving. How many more puns can I come up with? Don’t expect a warm welcome when Aaron Rodgers and his team arrive at East Rutherford.

Houston is battle tested this season. That’ll help them in the playoffs. They are 4-1 in games decided by four points or less. The last two games were decided by three or less.

Joe Mixon has rushed for over 100 yards in the last three games and four of his five games. The Jets' rush D is trending in the wrong direction as they have given up 136.7 yards rushing in the last three.

I'll take Houston to win and cover. Give me the over. Hard to believe the Texans are underdogs when they are 6-2 and the Jets are 2-6. I get it – Houston is without their top two wide receivers, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. The Jets are ready to mail it in, though.

DAL at ATL (-3)   Total: 51.5

I’m done with Dallas. The Falcons return home, which is not necessarily a good thing. They are 3-0 on the road and only 2-3 at home.

The Cowboys do play better on the road as they are 3-1 away from the pressure of their home crowd. They can't run the ball and they can stop the run. It is their fatal flaws. Expect big games from Bijon Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

Atlanta wins and covers. Give me the over. It should be a bit of a shootout, although I see Atlanta moving the ball, mostly, on the ground.

MIA at BUF (-6)  Total: 49.5

Miami is in second place in the AFC East. That’s the good news. The bad news is they are 2-5. At this rate, Buffalo will clinch the division by Thanksgiving.

The Bills own the Dolphins, lately. They've won the last five matchups and two of the last three haven't been close.

Give me Buffalo to win, but Miami to cover. I am counting on Miami to put up a fight in this one. Their season is on the line. This game will tell a lot about their head coach and how good of a motivator he is.

Raiders at CIN (-7.5)  Total: 46.5

The Raiders, surprisingly, haven't been embarrassingly bad. They have kept it close the last two weeks against the Rams and Chiefs. Cincy just can’t get a streak going.

Cincy wins, but Las Vegas covers. I'll take the under. Wouldn't shock me if Vegas pulls off the upset, but I can't get myself to, officially, say it.

Chargers (-1.5) at CLE  Total: 42.5

Cleveland had the upset of the week. Baltimore was a runaway freight train heading into last week, but they hit a brick wall in Cleveland. I underestimated Jameis Winston. I apologize. I guess I still remember the Winston that once threw 30 interceptions in a season.

Cleveland wins outright. I think this game ekes over. This will be Nick Chubb's third game back so maybe the rust is off. Winston has given the team a spark.

WASH (-3.5) at NYG  Total: 43.5

Not only did Jayden Daniels play last week, he gave everyone the most memorable moment of the year. I put the Giants in the same boat as the Cowboys. I've gotten burnt too many times picking them. There are only so many times you can put your hand in the fire and say, "Ouch!" before you stop putting your hand in the fire.

Washington wins and covers. I'll take the over with Washington doing most of the heavy lifting. I'm still not used to just, casually, picking Washington to win. It feels weird.

NO (-7) at CAR   Total: 43.5

Yuck. Sorry for anyone who has to watch this game. New Orleans beat Carolina in the season opener, 47-10. If Bryce Young can't put up some stats against this horrible New Orleans defense, he may as well pack his bags.

New Orleans wins. Carolina covers, but I would. feel a little more confident about that if Derek Carr wasn't back. I think this game, easily, goes over.

DEN at BALT (-9.5)  Total: 45.5

Baltimore got a wake up call last week. That won’t be good for Sean Payton, Bo Nix, and the rest of the Denver Broncos.

Baltimore wins, but Denver covers. Give me the over. I think Denver gets some garbage points late to make it look good.

JAX at PHIL (-7.5)  Total: 45.5

The Eagles are beginning to soar. They've won three in a row, including their last two games by over twenty points. The Jaguars' pass defense is awful, so this may be a rare game where Jalen Hurts gets to shine.

Philadelphia wins and covers. Give me the over.

CHI at ARZ (-1)  Total: 44.5

Caleb Williams had a tough week last week – completing only ten passes – and was overshadowed in his much anticipated showdown with fellow top draft pick, Jayden Daniels.

Arizona had an impressive win against Miami last week. I have a soft spot, for some reason, for Arizona. Everyone in the NFC West has four losses. I may be tempted to pick the Cardinals to win it.

Having said that, I have to pick Arizona to win and cover. Give me the over.

DET (-3.5) at GB  Total: 48.5

Baltimore might have hit a speed bump, but Detroit just keeps rolling along. Jordan Love has a groin injury and is trying his darnedest to be ready to play. This game has huge playoff implications.

Oh baby, oh baby! A lot of pressure on this pick. Give me Detroit to win and cover. Something is telling me to take the under despite these two great offenses. I expect a lot of rushes so maybe not as many plays and drives, overall.

LA Rams (-1.5) at SEA   Total: 48.5

I must have a blind spot for this Rams’ team. I thought Minnesota beating them was a sure thing last week, but I didn’t take into account the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Nacua was, especially, impressive in his return. The guy is tough as nails. 

I'll take the Rams to win and cover. I won't make the same mistake two weeks in a row in underestimating Sean McVay and the Rams.

IND at MIN (-5)   Total: 46.5

I feel like Minnesota is at a critical juncture of the season. They have now lost two in a row after being one of only two undefeated teams through five weeks. Indianapolis is a pesky little team that can’t be overlooked. They are even more dangerous now that they are giving Anthony Richardson the rest he requested and going with Joe Flacco in this one.

Minnesota wins, but Indy keeps it close and covers. I think this game, easily, goes over. Flacco always puts up points.

TB at KC (-8.5)  Total: 45.5

Baker Mayfield, RESPECT! Guy was without both his top receivers, but that didn’t stop him from coming out gunning. He completed 37 out of 50 passes in a loss to Atlanta. He, single handedly, kept them in the game.

Whoa! What is going on with me. Something is happening to me as I write this. I may be going a bit crazy. I am becoming overcome by some insane thought...

Give me Tampa to win outright!!! The Chiefs have to lose at some point. Baker Mayfield is the one to serve them their first loss on a silver platter. Give me the over in what will be an exciting fourth quarter.

NE at TEN (-3.5)  Total:  37.5

I put my money where my mouth was last week. Not only did I wager on them to beat the Jets, I parlayed it with beating the Titans. That’s right, I bet on New England to go on a two-game winning streak when everyone was saying the Patriots wouldn’t win another game this year. 

Of course, I was counting on having Drake Maye for both games. Sounds like he is progressing well through the concussion protocol the NFL has set up. I just hope they don't rush The Kid back. A player's long term health should always be the most important thing. After all, he just celebrated his ninth year anniversary with his girlfriend this week. May he have many more.

Either way, I will take New England to win outright. I have to stay true to my bet from last week. I'll take the over. The Patriots' offense is turning into a juggernaut. Just kiddin'. I do feel a Patriots' defensive or special team's touchdown, though. Will Levis may be back, after all.