Week 8 predictions: Could I be picking the Patriots to upset the Jets?
It was a so-so week for me in Week 7. I was disappointed in the Saints, Texans, Patriots, Giants, and Falcons. I expected more out of all of them. I still came out ahead at over .500, and that's all you can ask, right? Wrong.
Last week on my picks, straight up, I was 9-6. Against the spread I was also 9-6. Picking the total points over/unders I was 8-7.
For the season:
Moneyline 31-13
Vs. the spread: 27-14-1
Over/under point total: 22-20
Let's get to Week 8:
MIN vs Rams
Spread: MIN -3
Total: 48.5
Minnesota lost their first game of the season in heart-breaking fashion last week. It broke my heart, too. They came back from 11 points down to Detroit in the second half to take a one-point lead with three minutes left in the game. Detroit gambled by settling and playing for a long field goal, but it paid off when Jake Bates nailed a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds left.
The Rams won last week, but had a tougher time with the Raiders than they should have. There is talk that the Rams have put Cooper Kupp on the trade market so it looks like they have given up on this season.
Minnesota gets back on the winning track and covers, easily. They still have a lot to play for. Take the under.
PHI vs CIN
Spread: -2.5
Total: 47.5
Similar to the Rams, the Bengals should have dispensed with the Browns a lot easier than they did last week. The Eagles did just the opposite. They crushed their opponent, the Giants, so much so that Daboll benched his starting quarterback.
Philly wins and covers, easily. The Bengals have zero running game. Philly looks like they may have turned a corner. Take the under. Cincy won’t be able to score enough.
BALT vs CLE
Spead: -8.5
Total: 44.5
Baltimore is a juggernaut right now. They are hitting on all cylinders. Cleveland shouldn’t represent even a speed bump for Lamar, Henry, et al.
The Ravens win and cover, easily. Baltimore will have to do all of the heavy lifting to get to the over, but I think they do.
TEN vs DET
Spread: DET -11
Total: 44.5
So far, we are looking at a lot of mismatches. Eleven points is a hefty spread.
Detroit wins, obviously, but can they cover? I think they take their foot off the gas a little, so the Titans should keep it within ten points. I'll take the under.
ARZ vs MIA
Spread: MIA -3
Total 46.5
How is Miami a favorite in this one? I know Tua is back, but still. He should be rusty and there is no guarantee he can finish the game. You can be forgiven if you didn’t realize Arizona won on Monday night as they played the late game opposite the Ravens-Bucs high scoring, entertaining affair.
Give me Arizona to win. Even with Tua back, I will take the under.
ATL vs TB
Spread: ATL -2.5
Total: 46.5
It feels like these two teams just played. Tampa is in trouble. They gave up 500 yards passing to Cousins just a few weeks ago when these two teams played, and now Mayfield will be without two of his best weapons, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Good job, Todd Bowles. Evans shouldn't have been playing and Godwin got hurt in the final seconds of a game which was out of reach.
Atlanta wins and covers. If Tampa was at full strength, I would take the over. But they’re not, so I won’t.
GB vs JAX
Spread: GB -4
Total: 49.5
This spread seems way low. The margin should be closer to those earlier large spreads. Don’t be fooled into thinking everything is all good now with the Jaguars because they beat the Patriots. It was the Patriots. Green Bay held Houston and CJ Stroud in check. What do you think Trevor Lawrence can do?
Green Bay wins and covers, easily. How many times have I used the word “easily’? I’m sure it will bite me in the butt. Give me the under again. It feels like I have said that a lot too.
IND vs HOU
Spread: HOU -5
Total: 45.5
What happened to CJ Stroud in Green Bay? And where was the Tank Dell that played against the Patriots?
Houston rebounds and covers, dare I say, easily. Guess what? I will take the under, too.
Saints vs Chargers
Spread: LAC -7
Total: 40.5
The Saints were one of my biggest disappointments last week. The Chargers are still looking for an identity under Jim Harbaugh. Justin Herbert doesn’t seem like a good fit for Harbaugh. Kind of like how Alex Van Pelt isn’t a good fit for Drake Maye.
The Chargers take care of business at home, but seven points is a lot. The Saints should be able to keep it that close. I’ll take the over for a change.
BUF vs SEA
Spread: BUF -3
Total: 46.5
Sometimes Buffalo looks like Super Bowl contenders, sometimes they don’t. Last week they did. Seattle lost to the Ginats at home then crushed the Falcons on the road. It doesn't make sense. Why do we gamble on sports?
Buffalo wins and covers. Amari Cooper and Josh Allen continue to work on their chemistry. They're already off to a great start. Give me the under.
CAR vs DEN
Spread: DEN -10
Total: 41.5
This is an interesting spread as well. I know the Panthers are bad. I know Bryce Young is back in as starting quarterback after Andy Dalton sprained his thumb in a car accident this week. But I still am not sold on Denver being ten points better than any team. They proved me wrong against the Saints last week. Can they do it again?
No. Denver wins, but Carolina covers, even with Young at QB. The point total has come down a couple of points since earlier in the week, but it hasn't come down far enough. Give me the under.
KC vs Raiders
Spread: KC -10
Total: 41.5
Not much needs to be said about this one. The only question will be if the Chiefs take their foot off the gas pedal at the end.
The Chiefs will win, obviously. I am concerned the Raiders may be able to back door cover this one. I say no. The Chiefs' D has too much pride for that. Give me the under as KC sits their starters in the fourth quarter.
CHI vs WASH
Spread: CHI -2.5
Total:43.5
Many had this one circled on their calendar at the beginning of the year. It was supposed to be a battle of the top two rookie quarterbacks taken in the draft. To make the matchup even juicier, both QBs are playing, exceptionally, well and their teams look like playoff contenders.
Unfortunately, Jayden Daniels bruised some ribs last week and is likely a no-go. All the draft critics that were worried about Daniels' durability at the NFL level are taking a bow.
Chicago's D is the D-ifference in this game. Chicago moves to 5-2 with the win. I would hedge my bets by taking Washington to cover. I think Mariota could keep it close and if Daniels pulls a Willis Reed, all the better. Give me the under again.
DAL vs SF
Spread: SF -4.5
Total 46.5
I keep wanting to pick Dallas every week, but the bookmakers are – I know it will come as a surprise – smarter than me. I am slow to latch on to the concept that Dallas might just not be very good.
The 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk last week and may be without Deebo Samuel. Don't do it, Tony. Don't do it.
I'm doing it! Give me Dallas and the points. I'll take the over. 26-23 sounds about right to me.
NYG vs PITT
Spread: PITT -6.5
Total: 36.5
We've established that bookmakers are smarter than me, now it is time to admit Mike Tomlin is smarter than me. For one quarter, it looked like Tomlin was out of his mind for replacing Justin Fields with Russell Wilson. But then Wilson found the hookup with disgruntled wide receiver George Pickens. The Steelers scored 34 points in the final three quarters. Meanwhile, the Giants benched their quarterback as well, but for different reasons.
Give me Pittsburgh to win, but the Giants to cover. I can't believe the Giants are this bad and the Steelers are that good. Give me the over on points.
NYJ vs NE
Spread: NYJ -7
Total: 41.5
Things were looking pretty good for the Patriots to start the game in London last week. Ditto for the Jets in Pittsburgh. But then it turned ugly for both teams. The big difference between the two teams is one has a 40-year-old future Hall of Fame quarterback nearing the end of his career at the helm, the other has a 22-year-old rookie quarterback embarking on what, everyone hopes, will be a Hall of Fame career. The one thing both Rodgers and the Patriots have in common is that they are both "soft."
I'm going crazy with this one and picking the Patriots to win outright. The O-line is playing better and Maye has shown what he can do if he has protection. Demario Douglas was ill in London. I think the Patriots' D sets out to prove Mayo wrong about them being soft. Give me the over. I feel something like, 24-20.