Week 2: Patriots have a golden opportunity ahead of them against the Dolphins
The Patriots came within a toe tap by Kayshon Boutte, and possibly a brain freeze by their head coach, of possibly pulling off a monumental upset of the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. Some in the media have called it a moral victory, but the fact is the Patriots’ record stands at 0-1 going into their second home tilt.
The Miami Dolphins come into Week 2 flying high. They are coming off a thrilling back-and-forth high scoring affair, on the road, against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards, connecting mostly to speedster Tyreek Hill. Hill had 11 receptions for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Patriots had a total of 382 combined yards on offense against the Eagles. Granted, the Eagles defense is far superior to the the Chargers.
Last year, we would have said there is no way Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense would have any chance of keeping up with this Dolphins explosive offense. Last week’s performance was encouraging, however. Mac Jones was sharp, with the exception of one pass returned for a touchdown. He can’t have that happen again. Probably more importantly, the offensive line did an acceptable job against the Eagles’ formidable front seven. And OC Bill O’Brien did an exceptional job making the offensive line maybe look a little better than they were. Jones was getting the ball out of his hands in a little over two seconds. I can barely get off my couch in two seconds, nevermind blow past a 320-pound lineman and get to the quarterback in that amount of time.
Whenever the Dolphins play the Patriots, home field advantage is a huge factor. Usually, however, it is the Patriots going down to Miami in the heat of the early season and the Dolphins coming up to New England in the chill of December. Weather conditions should be perfect Sunday night, with temperatures in the low 60’s and little wind. It should be weather not too unfamiliar for the Dolphins. The Patriots will be looking forward to the nice weather following what they had to play in in the first half of last week.
I was feeling a little better about the Patriots winning this game on Monday and Tuesday of this week. But then word came out that offensive tackles Trent Brown and Sidy Sow were dealing with concussions, and veteran center David Andrews was dinged up. What the heck? So don’t expect to see Brown or Sow on Sunday. On the bright side, the Patriots are hopeful to get starting guards Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu back.
The Dolphins gave up 233 yards rushing against the Chargers. Rhamondre Stevenson struggled last week. I’d like to think it was due as much to him being ill as it did to the offensive line not opening holes. Ezekiel Elliot got a lot more playing time than I expected, but again I think it was due to Stevenson not being 100%. What I did see of Elliot did not impress me. He appeared slow and lumbering, and he fumbled! He was overused in the passing game. Ty Montgomery factored into the first couple drives for the Patriots but then he disappeared. I’d like to see more of him in the backfield on third down.
I did love seeing Stevenson and Elliot both on the field at the same time. On one play, both backs lined up on either side of Mac Jones in the shotgun. The toss went to Elliot out to the right, as Stevenson decoyed to the left, and Elliot had his best run. On another play, in a short yardage situation, Elliot lined up in a traditional fullback position with Stevenson lined up behind him in the eye. Elliot again took the handoff for a quick hitter up the middle for a first down.
Defensively, the Dolphins won’t have 536 total yards against the Patriots like they did against the Chargers. Belichick has a done a good job in the past of containing Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Cornerback Jonathan Jones has done an admirable job hanging with Hill. It should be noted that Jones missed some practice time this week. It is important to note that the Dolphins have other weapons, including old friend Braxton Berrios and a couple solid tight ends. There is a reason the Dolphins allowed Mike Gesicki to leave.
One thing I can guarantee - the Patriots will have more sacks against Tua Tagovailoa than the Chargers did (none). I will continue to bang this drum, like I have since the draft, the Patriots’ defense will be the difference in this game. They will get in the face of Tua and not allow him to sit comfortably in the pocket. Hopefully, Keion White gets even more playing time because he was a force against Philadelphia in his 14 times he was on the field. Christian Barmore appeared like the Barmore from his rookie season. The Patriots even threw in a little wrinkle against Philly, by blitzing their best cover corner and getting Christian Gonzalez his first career sack.
Most importantly, the Patriots secondary and their depth at safety did exceptional tackling. They will have to keep it up with the sure tackles to limit the yards after completion by the Miami receivers. I think the Patriots are well equipped to do just that. Again, I hope to see a little more of Marte Mapu as I was impressed by his heat seeking missile approach to defense.
In my preseason prediction, I predicted the Patriots would go 1-5 within the division with this being their one victory. Now that the Jets will be without Aaron Roders, I can now see the Patriots being 3-3 in the division. I also predicted them to be an 8-win team. Now, I can adjust that to a 10-win team and, very possibly, a playoff contender. Things could have been so much different if Rodgers could have just survived past Week 3 against the Patriots. A win here and there could be the difference. But the Patriots need to win the games they should win. Playing the Dolphins at home qualifies.
Mac Jones is due to break out. Last week’s 300-yard performance was very good, but I think he can do better and be more efficient, particularly in the fourth quarter. Might this be the week against his fellow Alabama alum? Expect Stevenson to give you much more against the Dolphins, maybe even a 100-yard performance, which would be remarkable with the Patriots’ beat up offensive line.
My prediction: Patriots win, 21-19, with the Dolphins failing on a two-point conversion late to seal the victory for the Patriots. I will credit the Patriots with a field goal when I see Belichick give rookie Chad Ryland his first career field goal opportunity. Maybe Belichick will go the whole season without attempting a field goal.