The most exciting weekend of the NFL season on tap

The season came to an abrupt end for five teams last week. The most disappointed team had to have been the 14-win Minnesota Vikings. They dominated the rest of the NFL, but just couldn't figure out how to beat the Lions and Rams. The Bucs were the most disappointing team for me. I was rooting for them as my sleeper team. As it turns out, they were asleep against the Commanders despite Baker Mayfield's best efforts.

I went 3-3 on my picks last week. I lost the Tampa, Minnesota, and Chargers' games. What happened, Justin Herbert?

Against the spread, I was 2-4. Denver didn't put up much of a fight against Buffalo.

I was 3-3 on my over/under picks as well. So, all in all, it was a mediocre start to the playoffs for me. I have a good feeling about this week – a week many consider the most exciting weekend of the NFL season.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) Total: 41.5

Chiefs win and cover. Take the under.

It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs play now that the playoffs are here. I kind of got the feeling they were on cruise control all season, but still managed to go 15-2 and secure the crucial first-round bye.

I haven't seen the Texans' team that played the Chargers last week since early in the season. I think it was an aberration. Running back Joe Mixon's status is questionable with an ankle injury. He is likely to play, but won't be anywhere near 100%. That should make things near impossible for CJ Stroud and Nico Collins to get anything going. I think Houston will have a tough time getting into double figures.

Kansas City is getting healthy at the right time. The returns of Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown are welcome sights for Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid has had an extra week to prepare something special for this game. I don't see any way Houston keeps this one close.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-8.5) Total: 55.5

Detroit wins and covers. Yes, take the over.

Jayden Daniels has been a great story, maybe even the story of the year. The coolness he displays at the end of games is already at an elite level. It makes you forget he is a rookie. The Cinderella story should come to an end on Saturday, though.

Detroit is not Tampa. Washington has made great strides this year, but their talent is nowhere near the level of Detroit's at this point. Not that Detroit needs anymore help, but they should be getting running back David Montgomery back this weekend.

I really wanted to pick Washington, at first, but I just can't talk myself into it. I can see Jayden Daniels completing 28 of 36 passes for 280 yards and rushing for another 60. But it won't be enough.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) Total: 42.5

Eagles win and cover. Take the under.

Weather will be a factor in this one. Snow is expected, maybe even a lot of it. That will not be a welcome sight for a team from California.

I said last week that the Rams could respond one of two ways to the fires raging in their home city. Either they would be distracted or they would be highly motivated to win one for the people of L.A. They were highly motivated.

I do think Philadelphia is vulnerable, but the snowy, cold weather and the Philadelphia raucous home crowd will be too much to overcome, even for a Sean McVay-coached team. If this game were played in L.A. or a neutral sight, I would have leaned towards picking the Rams. Even if the game were played in Philadelphia, but the weather was precipitation-free with temperatures in the 40's, I may have picked the Rams to win. I, definitely, would have picked them to cover.

This game should feature plenty of Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams. In terms of player props, I would slams the unders on all passing and receiving stats and hit the overs on rushing stats, even as crazy high as the number may be for Barkley. He did have 255 rushing yards against these Rams back at the end of November, after all.

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills Total: 51.5

Bills win. Take the under.

Weather may also be a factor in Buffalo on Sunday. That is not much of a surprise. Both these teams are built for the cold and snow, though.

If I am going to be honest with myself, Baltimore is the better team right now. At the beginning of the year, I picked the Bills and Lions to make it to the Super Bowl. For that reason, I need to stick with Buffalo. My hope is that Josh Allen dons his Superman cape and puts the team on his shoulders.

Buffalo will be hard pressed to keep Baltimore under 200 combined rushing yards between Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. That should keep the combined score total lower. Lamar will be highly motivated to prove that he is the true league MVP, and not Josh Allen. He will also be motivated to prove he can win a big game.

Did I convince you Buffalo will win?