Some bold and not so bold predictions for the Patriots in 2024 and beyond
The New England Patriots are on to Cincinnati. They open the season there this Sunday at 1pm. For the first time in over two decades, Bill Belichick won’t be on the sidelines for the Patriots. Instead, it will be first time head coach Jerod Mayo leading the team. He brings with him a new coaching staff, including first time offensive play caller and offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt.
Everyone is predicting the Patriots to finish near the bottom of the league in wins which would garner them another very high draft pick next spring. That should allow the Patriots to draft the one thing they missed out on in the first two rounds of this year’s draft – a franchise left tackle.
The Patriots’ offensive line being bad this year is not a bold prediction – it is like predicting the sun will come up tomorrow. I do have a list of things which would not shock me when the calendar flips to 2025. Here they are:
The Patriots will finish 5-12
Most oddsmakers have the Patriots over/under for wins at 4.5. Not surprisingly, the oddsmakers are right on target. That’s why these sportsbooks make money. I kept going back and forth between the Patriots winning four or five games, but I settled on five.
They finished 4-13 last year, but a play here and there, or a coaching decision here and there, may have won the Patriots three or four more games. Don’t forget – the Patriots had a stretch of three consecutive games where their defense gave up ten or fewer points and they lost all three of them.
If this year’s offense can show a little more competency, especially from the quarterback position, the team should be better than last year. If that translates into more wins is hard to say, though, because their schedule is rated the most difficult in the NFL. Well, that’s just not fair.
I was prepared to be a lot bolder on the win/loss prediction back in June or July. That was before Matthew Judon showed up at camp like a seven-year-old showing up to see Phantom of the Opera. That was also before Christian Barmore got diagnosed with blood clots.
Judon was traded to Atlanta after not getting the contract extension he wanted with the Patriots. Barmore is on the reserve/non-football injury list which leaves the door open for Barmore to return this season, but ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that the Patriots are “bracing for the possibility” that Barmore won’t play this season. It should come as no surprise. Center David Andrews missed the entire 2019 season after having the same issue discovered that summer.
With Judon and Barmore on the field, I was prepared to pick the Patriots for seven or eight wins. I was flirting with the idea of boldly predicting them to sneak into the playoffs.
Not only did the absence of Judon and Barmore kill my optimism, some other things have dimmed my optimism as camp progressed.
I find myself questioning more and more if Jerod Mayo was the right choice for head coach of the Patriots. At first, Mayo's openness with the media felt like a nice, cool breeze on a summer day after the doom and gloom of Belichick's pressers. During press conferences, Mayo invites more questions at the end of press conferences. He almost begs for more questions.
“Is that all you got? Come on. I know you got more.”
He jokes with the media. At one time, he was part of this same media which now stands before him. He co-hosted a football show, Quick Slants, on NESN with current Patriots beat writer Tom E. Curran.
Mayo hasn't been shy about talking specifics about any particular player’s development. He would tell you if a player was dealing with a sprained ankle instead of just saying the player had “a lower body injury.” He spoke, candidly, about Matthew Judon’s contract dispute and an on-field altercation the two had. He kept the media up to date on how much Drake Maye was closing the gap on Jacoby Brissett. He insisted all along that it was an open competition for the starting job.
It was also a breath of fresh air when Eliot Wolf began spending Robert Kraft’s money re-signing players. It was refreshing to hear that they had a competitive offer on the table for free agent wide receiver, Calvin Ridley. It was refreshing to see Wolf draft for positions of need and not make any reaches during the NFL draft.
Now that we have seen the completion of camp, I am starting to second-guess the handling of some of those decisions. Did Wolf signing all these players and being open about it splinter the locker room? Judon and Davon Godchaux were the two loudest cry babies, whining, "Hey, what about me?"
There must be others. Who else might have it upset in the locker room? How else might this affect the Patriots in future negotiations?
While it was nice going after Ridley aggressively, ultimately he chose not to come here. Subsequently, the Patriots and 49er’s had a trade in place for New England to acquire star wideout, Brandon Ayuk, but Ayuk killed the trade because – here it is again – he didn’t want to come to New England. Without Tom Brady and the promise of a potential Super Bowl ring, New England no longer is a destination spot for players.
This preseason also has shown that Wolf made a mistake in not finding a left tackle – either via free agency (Jonah Williams) or being more aggressive in the draft (trading up to the bottom of the second round when a run on the last of the top tier offensive linemen occurred).
The more I see of Mayo, the more I dislike him. It is almost as if he is trying so hard to be liked that it makes me not like him. I feel I am being manipulated as a fan.
He has made comments like he doesn’t consider himself a player’s coach, but instead as a great coach. Really? He hasn't even won his first NFL game as a head coach yet and he considers himself a great head coach? Have to admire the confidence.
He has spoken about his relationship with Wolf being good as long as Wolf always agrees with him. He spoke about the decision to start Brissett on Opening Day as “we have decided” before correcting himself by saying, sternly, “I have decided.” It has all just been rubbing me the wrong way.
Maybe the first thing that sent up red flags about this coaching staff was Drake Maye only getting one series in the first exhibition game. The was the first “uh oh” moment for me as to what is this coaching staff doing.
I went into the game excited about the direction of the team. I was excited when Maye took the field for the first time. He wasn't asked to do much on his first drive. Maybe they will unleash him on the next drive.
I jumped out of my seat and yelled at the TV, however, when the broadcast came back from commercial break and Bailey Zappe (who is no longer on the team) was on my TV screen in the huddle for the Patriots on the field. Would those snaps that Zappe took in games and practice have been better served going to Maye?
The way they have been handling the development of Maye and how they misled us to believe that he was truly competing for the Week 1 starting job has left a bad taste in my mouth. I don't like being lied to.
This is just a long way of me saying that a combination of Mayo being a novice head coach and Wolf not filling roster needs will cost the Patriots a win or two. Not having Judon and Barmore will cost them another win or two. It could mean the difference between a four- or five-win season and a seven- or eight-win season.
Rhamondre Stevenson will rush for 1,200 yards
It is hard to believe Stevenson is only going into his fourth season. He had 1,040 yards rushing just two seasons ago.
Alex Van Pelt is going to lean heavy on the running game this year. Once the Patriots drafted Layden Robinson, I wrote:
Robinson excels at run blocking. In the highlights I saw, he moves very well for a big man and has the ability to twist and turn defenders as designated by the play call. His pass protection needs work, though.
At this point I had a bit of a revelation – Jerod Mayo and Alex Van Pelt’s offensive philosophy was going to be ground and pound.
Alex Van Pelt will be one-and-done as offensive coordinator
It is for the above reason that I don’t think Van Pelt is the right fit for this team going forward. Maybe I just don't like the name Alex.
Van Pelt has done a great job improving both Maye and Joe Milton this preseason. Is Van Pelt a great quarterbacks coach? I got no problem answering that in the affirmative. Is he a great offensive coordinator? Ah, now that is the question.
What is the point in drafting and developing Maye if you are not going to utilize him correctly? If New England just wanted a game manager as a quarterback, they should have traded down for JJ McCarthy and gotten some more picks.
It is like taking a tiger out of the wilderness and putting him in a house and expecting him to be a house pet. Maye needs to be set loose. I don’t know if Van Pelt’s style will allow him to do that. Maye – when he reaches his prime – should be dropping back to pass four out of every five times. Van Pelt likes to run two out of every three times to set up the play action. Boring.
Keep in mind also that Van Pelt doesn’t have any experience calling plays in the NFL. I know, I know, he called plays for one playoff game when Cleveland’s regular offensive coordinator was out. That doesn’t count. He needs to prove he can formulate a game plan on a week-to-week basis. He also needs to show he can make in-game adjustments on the fly. He needs to show flexibility in his play calling. He also needs to not be predictable in the red zone which I noticed a bit in the preseason games.
If the Patriots, somehow, have an even worse record than many are predicting, someone will be blamed. You think Mayo is going to blame himself? Someone will need to take the bullet, and that someone will be Van Pelt.
Jerod Mayo will NOT be the head coach the next time the Patriots finish above .500
Along the same lines of the Van Pelt prediction, at some point the blame will have to fall on Mayo. Right now, Mayo and “Thunder Cat” Robert Kraft are all simpatico. Mayo will be allowed one poor season. No one expects much of the Patriots this season.
But next year…
Drake Maye better be starting and the team should finish near .500 and showing improvement at the end of the season. By Mayo’s (and Maye’s) third season, the Patriots should be playoff contenders. After that, they should be Super Bowl contenders from 2027-2037. I am taking my meds and exercising, accordingly.
If the Patriots are still a 5-12 team next season, whatever mutual handshake understanding Mayo and Kraft may have had while Belichick was here goes out the window. Kraft would have fulfilled his obligation to Mayo and will be free to cut ties.
Drake Maye will be starting by Week 5, if not sooner
If I want to be bold, I will say he will start Week 2.
I was never one of those in favor of absolutely, positively, sitting Drake Maye for part of, if not all of, the season. I don’t want to hear about how he shouldn't be allowed to play behind this bad of an offensive line. Did anyone see how bad Baltimore’s offensive line was Thursday night in their season opener against Kansas City? Should John Harbaugh sit Lamar Jackson for fear that he is going to get hurt?
These things have a way of working themselves out. Nobody roots for injuries, but this is the NFL. Brissett already banged up his shoulder while taking a big hit in the final preseason game. Brissett hardly played at all this preseason and still almost suffered a significant injury.
No matter what Mayo and Wolf’s development plan is for Maye, once Brissett gets hurt, it will be “go” time. And there won’t be any turning back at that point. Maye will be the starter for the rest of the year…
Joe Milton will start a game for the Patriots this year… and win
To finish the above sentence, Maye will be the starting quarterback for the rest of the year… until he gets hurt. I don’t expect it to be, or hope it is not, a serious injury. But it is fair to expect he will get dinged up at some point.
Again, in limited playing time this preseason, he did have a little scare when he hit his hand on an opponent’s helmet after releasing a pass. Those things happen in the NFL.
Maye also likes to run with the ball which allows for even more opportunity to get hurt. If he suffers a concussion, he, automatically, has to sit out one game.
Unless the Patriots sign a veteran QB, enter Bazooka Joe. Maybe it is a little selfish that I want to see Milton play one regular season game with the Patriots before he becomes a phenom somewhere else. Sometimes it is okay to be selfish.
Once the Patriots released Bailey Zappe and they didn’t sign a veteran quarterback, it showed they are willing to go with the two rookies as the primary backups to Brissett.
Like I mentioned when discussing Van Pelt, give AVP credit for the quick development of the young quarterbacks. Milton may never have the touch to throw a soft swing pass to a running back coming out of the backfield or lob a ball over a defender in the corner of the end zone, but he has shown better footwork and improved patience in the pocket. He has also shown he can run over defenders. I don't think Van Pelt taught him that, though.
Milton is just electric and fun to watch. If Maye were to miss some time and Brissett is out with a season ending injury, Milton would be starting a game sometime during the soft spot of New England’s schedule in November or December. How would a matchup between Milton and Caleb Williams look on November 10? I would be willing to bet ($5 maximum) that people would come out of that game talking more about Milton than Williams.
If nothing else, maybe Milton gets a token start in the final game of the season against Buffalo at home. If Buffalo has a playoff seed locked up, they would have nothing to play for.
Javon Baker won’t be a member of the Patriots at the end of the season
I really, really, really want to be wrong about this one. I just worry about Baker’s character. It is hard to argue otherwise.
When he was drafted, he posted an expletive-filled video of him going off about how he was drafted way too low and every other team was going to regret passing on him. In his introductory press conference to the Patriots media, his attention wandered everywhere as he told people to come to the games and bring popcorn because he makes people in wheelchairs stand up.
Well, he couldn’t make a fairly standard catch by NFL standards on a beautifully thrown deep ball by Drake Maye in the second exhibition game. He was made ineligible when he was, easily, shoved out of bounds on a pattern on another beautiful throw down the left sideline by Maye.
People in wheelchairs are still sitting down and I am still waiting to eat my popcorn.
This week – to add butter to my popcorn (if that is not a phrase, I am copywriting it now) – Baker got into it with a police officer at an airport after spending too much time in a drop off zone. Of course, Baker had to post another expletive-filled video of his reaction to the incident. By all accounts, the video put Baker in hot water with Patriots’ management. Imagine that.
Baker may have avoided a suspension by the team, but he was already in jeopardy of being an inactive for Sunday’s game. This is a disturbing trend and, hopefully, he can grow up fast and realize he is not nearly as good as he thinks he is.
Kayshon Boutte will have more receptions than Tyquan Thornton this year
I don’t know – is that a bold prediction? I am excited to see Thornton on the field for a regular season game. It just hasn't happened often. Not only that, but he will be on the field for a season opener and, very likely, as a starter.
Thornton only has 35 receptions in his first two seasons in the NFL. He may not be as big of a bust as N’Keal Harry (few are), but he is in the neighborhood. He has bulked up this offseason in hopes of not breaking like a twig every time he gets tackled or dives for a ball.
It is scary to think that with Kendrick Bourne sidelined, Thornton may be the in-house veteran of the wide receiver corps. In addition to that, his speed is something which sets him apart from all the other receivers on the team. The Patriots don’t have that true X-receiver who they can put outside on an island and burn past defenders. That, and the fact the Patriots invested a second round draft pick on him, is why he is still on the team.
Boutte, on the other hand, was a sixth round draft pick of the Patriots and has hung around the fringes of the Patriots’ roster. Many media were surprised that he survived the final roster cuts this year.
Boutte got a raw deal from Bill Belichick last year. Like Demario Douglas, Boutte was benched for making a rookie mistake early in the season. He was unable to get a second foot inbounds on a nice catch along the sidelines in the closing minutes of the season opener against Philadelphia – one of those additional games the Patriots could have won if Boutte made a play.
Unlike Douglas – who was benched for fumbling the ball against Miami while trying to extend a play – Boutte never got out of Belichick’s doghouse to show what he could do. He finished with only two receptions.
Boutte deserved better. It looks like Mayo and Wolf feel the same. They see the talent. They see the LSU wide receiver pedigree. They see the hands, especially on contested balls. They see the route running. They see the explosiveness after the catch.
I believe Boutte and Maye will click, beautifully, once Maye is given his chance. They have already shown good chemistry in the preseason. Boutte, Ja’Lynn Polk, and, hopefully, a more mature Javon Baker will form a formidable nucleus with Drake Maye going forward.
Patriots lose the season opener to the Bengals, 20-13
Finally, to spare me writing a separate article, this is my prediction for game one of what should be a very long season. It will be made that much longer if Brissett starts all 17 games.
The Bengals are notorious slow starters to seasons. Last year, they lost 24-3 at Cleveland. The year before that, they lost the season opener in overtime to Pittsburgh.
The Patriots almost got lucky and avoided having to face stud wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase who held out all of camp in a contract dispute. He is back with the team this week, however, and despite many thinking he will only play a handful of plays, I think he will play more than that and be impactful. Chase is a supreme athlete and missing camp shouldn't affect him as much as someone else.
Expect a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson as he begins his march to 1,200 yards. It will be the only chance New England has to score.
The highlight of the game for the Patriots will be a Joey Slye 62-yard field goal. How is that for a bold prediction?
