Patriots hope not to repeat the Packers' mistake of drafting Mandarich in stellar 1989 NFL draft

After months of speculation, Draft Day is, finally, here. Mock drafts are like snow globes. Every year it is the same thing. Mock drafts often get shaken up and changed, but the actual NFL draft usually winds up where everyone originally thought.

There are, usually, a couple of key dates to every draft. The first comes prior to the NFL and college football seasons starting. There are expectations where players will go in the following year's draft. Things get put into place in the snow globe – a castle here, a bridge there, a mountain over yonder.

Then both the NFL seasons and college football seasons end and the snow globe gets shaken for the first time.

The draft order is set based on where teams finished during the NFL season. The needs of all the NFL teams are determined. Some teams, like the Patriots, have specific, glaring needs at certain positions. In the Patriots' case, it is offensive line and wide receiver.

The college football season ends in early January. The players that were believed to be at the top of the draft have either cemented their positions or they didn't meet the expectations set on them in September and have seen their stock fall.

Maybe they even sustained injuries during the season that many NFL teams deem worrisome. Some teams might sour on these players who got hurt, while other teams may view it as an opportunity to get a potential high draft pick lower in the draft at great value.

Then the snow globe gets shaken again as there are other college players who see their stock rise due to breakout seasons – somebody like Penn State's Tyler Warren. Maybe a different coaching staff comes in and realizes the unfulfilled potential of a young player. Maybe the player was just a late bloomer. Maybe everything just clicked, for whatever reason, and the player's results started matching the potential that was always there.

February sees head coaches get fired in the NFL. New coaches bring in new philosophies, both on the offensive and defensive sides. Maybe draft priorities get switched around.

The snow globe gets shaken again.

Early March brings NFL free agency. Maybe some teams fill some of their needs at this time. Maybe, again, this changes the focus of a team in the draft. Maybe now a team decides they can draft the best player available on the board instead of drafting for a position of need.

The six to eight weeks between the bulk of free agency signings coming to an end and the actual draft is when the snow globe gets shaken with the most fervor.

People get bored with looking at the snow globe without seeing the tiny flakes whirling around. The media comes out with their Mock Draft 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, and 5.0s. There are no games or any other changes to, really, change things up, but that doesn't stop people from trying out different scenarios in their mock drafts.

Finally, we get to the point we are at today. The snow globe has settled for the final time. More often than not, what we find is that the situation inside the snow globe is the same as it was when things first got shaken up in February, January, or, maybe even, last September.

That may very well be the case for the New England Patriots. Last September, if you listened to sports radio or read any Patriots' sports blogs, you would have, very likely, come across the term, "Will Campbell Sweepstakes."

I know that was the first time I heard his name. I remember thinking that maybe he was a wide receiver I had never heard of and which the Patriots so desperately needed.

Everyone knew the Patriots offensive line was terrible going into the season and that Eliot Wolf hadn't done enough, if anything, to address the line as a whole, but especially the left tackle position.

The Patriots finished the season 4-13. The Patriots made a change at head coach.

For his part, Will Campbell played all 12 games for LSU and finished up his career giving up only four sacks on 1,594 pass block snaps, according to PFF, in his three year career.

The Patriots' lackluster season earned them the fourth overall pick in this year's draft. It should have been the first overall pick, but the Patriots won a meaningless game against the Bills in Jerod Mayo's final game as head coach. It may be a big reason why Mayo is no longer with the Patriots.

The victory cost the Patriots a chance at getting some more, much needed, draft capital. Despite having the worst record in football, the Patriots were set at quarterback – the most coveted position in any draft. Most assuredly, they could have gotten a king's ransom for teams competing for the only sure-fire quarterback in this year's underwhelming draft – Cam Ward.

As it is, the Patriots have the fourth pick. They are still in position to get their guy they coveted from the onset – Will Campbell.

Ward will be gone, as will, most likely, the other two other blue chip players in this year's draft – Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter.

The Patriots' hopes of getting a big haul of premier draft picks for trading down in the draft while still being able to draft the guy they wanted all along (Will Campbell) have, essentially, vanished.

Now that the dust has settled, however, with every successive shake of the snow globe, there has been talk of the Patriots now passing on Campbell.

Why?

The biggest reason is the measurement of his arms. Did no one notice this when he didn't allow a single sack in 2023?

There has also been hype building over the unlimited potential of just-turned 21-year-old Missouri offensive tackle, Armand Membou. Ohio State tackle Josh Simmons suffered a serious knee injury last season which has seen his stock drop, but also seen his potential value as a lower pick rise. Some believe Simmons may be better than Campbell.

The last two months of shaking of the snow globe have, at various points, provided visions of the Patriots selecting wide receiver Tet McMillan, running back Ashton Jeanty, or Membou at four. The final shakeup of the snow globe this past week has seen Georgia edge rusher, Jalon Walker, gaining steam as a possible pick for the Patriots.

Remember last year when some began speculating the Patriots may draft Michigan quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, at third overall instead of Drake Maye?

In the end, the Patriots will, most likely, draft the guy people speculated last September... this past January... in February... that they would pick all along.

I am fully expecting to hear Will Campbell's name called when commissioner Roger Goodell says, "With the (fill in the blank) pick of the 2025 NFL draft, the Patriots pick... Will Campbell from the Louisiana State University."

Will I be jumping out of my seat when I hear the pick? No.

It is hard to get excited over an offensive lineman, especially when your team has this high of a draft pick. With this high of a draft pick, you hope to draft a player who can make explosive plays with the ball in their hands.

It is also hard to get excited about a player who many project will not even make it as a tackle in the NFL. Again, drafting this high, you would expect a player not to have any question marks. You would hope they are a sure-fire starter – at the position you draft them – for the next ten years. You want someone like a Drake Maye.

I have been one of the first, on the record, for wanting to draft Penn State tight end, Tyler Warren, with the Patriots' first pick. Since then, NBC Sports Boston's Tom E Curran and WEEI's Jermaine Wiggins, a former Patriots' tight end, have jumped aboard.

He, single-handedly, fills so many needs for New England. He will – from Day One – provide Drake Maye with a reliable, big target over the middle. He can help the offensive line as a sixth blocker. He can be a huge red zone target. He has a mean streak about him. He is a leader.

Many say that no tight end is worth drafting this high. They point to tight ends who have been drafted in the first round who have been busts. I would counter by pointing at offensive linemen who have been busts over the years. Many were viewed as can't-miss types.

I go back to Tony Mandarich. I am sure I still have the Sports Illustrated issue from my senior year in high school in 1989 where he was on the cover and being touted as the greatest offensive lineman prospect of all time. He was drafted second overall that year by the Green Bay Packers. Three years later, he was out of the league. The other guys drafted in the top five that year – Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, and Deion Sanders. Does that setup sound familiar? Quarterback, running back, edge rusher, and someone named Sanders?

I would even be excited if Goodell calls Jeanty's name for the Patriots. If the Patriots draft Jeanty and then move up to get a different offensive tackle like Kelvin Banks Jr. or Josh Conerly Jr., I would be ecstatic. I have no problem drafting the next Barry Sanders and risk someone else drafting a Mandarich-type.

I am not saying Campbell will be Mandarich. Mandarich had other issues which I am sure Campbell doesn't have – concerns about work ethic and drug use being the top two things.

My concern is that I don't want to end up with a serviceable, even an All-Pro guard, with the fourth overall pick while I watch Jeanty rush for 2000 yards with the Raiders and Warren turn into another Rob Gronkowski while playing for the rival Jets.

Final thoughts on how I would approach the Patriots' draft:

-- Of the players that have been rumored to be going to the Patriots at four, the only players I would be upset if the Patriots drafted in that spot would be Mason Graham, Tet McMillan, or Jalon Walker.

-- I like Matthew Golden and Luther Burden III better than McMillan if the Patriots move down and draft a wide receiver.

-- I am tired of hearing about the Patriots drafting a center or an offensive guard, AT ALL, in this draft. In the last three drafts, they have drafted Layden Robinson, Jake Andrews, Cole Strange, Sidy Sow, and Atonio Mafi as interior linemen.

If they don't think Caedan Wallace can cut it at tackle, that means they have drafted six players in the last three drafts to, basically, compete for one position – starting left guard. Mike Onwenu (a 2020 sixth-round draft pick) is making big money and is locked in at right guard now with the signing of Morgan Moses.

-- Now I wouldn't mind if they drafted two offensive tackles. I have my eyes on Conerly, Boston College's Ozzy Trapilo, and Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery. I, especially, am hoping for Trapilo (6'8", 316 lbs.) in the third round to serve as an apprentice under Moses to, eventually, take over at right tackle.

-- If the Patriots don't draft Tyler Warren – which, sadly, I don't see them doing – they should draft a tight end at some point. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper do not factor into the Patriots' long term plans. Stop saying tight ends are a position of strength for the Patriots!

I am eyeing Harold Fannin Jr., but have not given up hope on last year's seventh-round draft pick, Jaheim Bell.

-- The Patriots also need to get a speed back who has the ability to take it to the house any time he touches the ball, a la De'Von Achane (84th pick overall in the 2023 draft) of the Dolphins. Owner Robert Kraft also expressed a desire for a speed running back, and when the owner wants something...

I'll be watching SMU's Brashard Smith. He had the third fastest time of any running back at the combine. He is also a converted wide receiver who has "outstanding hands and ball skills," according to NFL.com's scouting report.

-- The Patriots locked in on defense in free agency, and they have drafted plenty of interior offensive linemen in recent drafts. This draft should be focused on offensive skill positions (offensive tackles, receivers, and a running back) and "weaponizing the offense." We've heard that term used before. Polk and Baker weren't the answers last year.

-- I would spend two draft picks, maximum, on defensive players – an edge rusher and a slot cornerback, maybe a free safety.

-- The first four picks should follow the formula of a receiver (ahem, Tyler Warren) or left tackle (Membou or, reluctantly, Campbell) with the first pick, the opposite position of whatever is taken first for the second pick, double dip at offensive tackle (either left or right) with the third pick, and running back/another receiver (WR or TE) in the middle rounds.

-- The Patriots should consider drafting a kicker with the final few picks, although I am comfortable going into the season with John Parker Romo handling the duties.

-- I'm not crazy about drafting a quarterback, but that was Eliot Wolf's dad's m.o. in Green Bay of always drafting a quarterback every year, no matter what. It will be a good litmus test to see if Wolf has any pull in the draft room.

With Drake Maye in tow, I view drafting a QB this year as a wasted pick, similar to what Joe Milton wound up being.