Patriots draft analysis: Great start, dubious middle, strong finish

Let’s state the obvious right off the bat. Bill Belichick knows more about football in his little finger than I know in my whole body. That is the case for all the fans and most of the media. So if you wish to read on, we have an understanding.

Glad you are still reading. Having had a few days to digest the draft, and some picks didn't go down very well, I came away with a couple of main observations or questions. First of all, I wondered why is Belichick drafting defense with his top three picks. It is apparent to anyone with eyes and ears and half a brain that the offense was the problem last year. They couldn’t score. They could barely get first downs. They certainly couldn’t pass downfield as it seemed every pass play was a quick screen of some sort. For large parts of the season, Mac Jones couldn’t get protection long enough to throw the ball downfield, thanks to horrible tackle play by Trent Brown and, especially, Isaiah Wynn. First round pick Cole Strange struggled in his first season at left guard. Wide receivers couldn’t separate and get open, except for Jakobi Myers who the Patriots chose not to re-sign.

So why did Belichick draft defensive players with his first three picks when the obvious needs were at offensive tackle and wide receiver? My initial thought was, “Man, Belichick really hates Mac Jones and doesn’t want to give him any weapons.” This would make some sense since Belichick has balked at giving his third year quarterback any assurances or positive vibes going into 2023. There also appears to be a rift between owner Robert Kraft and Belichick. Kraft loves Mac Jones. Does Belichick love, or even like, Mac Jones? Not so much. So was Belichick doing this to spite Kraft?

The obvious answer is no. Belichick just turned 71 and he is 19 wins shy of passing Don Shula for most all-time wins. That could take at least two seasons, and probably three. How many head coaches have you seen still on the sidelines at the age of 74?

So Belichick doesn’t have time for any sort of rebuild. He doesn’t have time for sub-.500 seasons, either. Quite frankly, Belichick may be on the hot seat this year if the team doesn’t make the playoffs for the third time in four years. So the choice may not be his to make about how long he stays on as head coach.

Belichick may have his reasons for not liking Jones.  He wasn't pleased with Jones for embarrassing his coaches and going outside “the family” for advice last season. But Belichick still wants to win. He needs to win. Time is not on his side.

But the more I started to think about it, the more I am wondering if Belichick didn’t bolster up an already solid defense in order to make his son, Stephen, the de facto defensive coordinator, look, not just good, but like a defensive mastermind like his old man.  It would only help Stephen’s resume for when teams are looking for a head coach after Bill retires. Is Bill looking out for his kid for after he is gone?

The second thing I began wondering is if Belichick was forced to relinquish a little bit of control of the draft. Belichick hasn’t had a standout draft since 2013, with the possible exception of 2021 which is contingent on Mac Jones’ success. Some of those years have been absolutely horrendous resulting in the Patriots being where they are now post-Brady. Some of Belichick’s early round flops include N’Keal Harry, Isaiah Wynn, Duke Dawson, Joejuan Williams, Cyrus Jones, Jordan Richards, Dominique Easley, Aaron Dobson, and Ras-I Dowling dating back to 2011. All of those players were taken in either the first or second round.

Could it be that Kraft has gotten sick of Belichick reaching for players in the draft like last year’s Cole Strange, that maybe he has split the responsibilities between Belichick and director of player personnel Matt Groh? The choice of Christian Gonzalez by the Patriots in the first round was only shocking to me in that the Patriots made the obvious pick in that spot. That’s what made it seem so much not like a Belichickian pick. Belichick rarely drafts the obvious choice. In 2020, the obvious choice was Mac Jones. And we all think we know how Belichick feels about Jones now. Did he feel the same back then and was Jones forced upon him by up high? Maybe Kraft decided to step in and offer some kind of compromise that Kraft and Groh would have final say on the higher-profile first round pick and then Belichick could do his thing for the remainder of the draft. Groh did get the majority of the time in front of the press over the weekend whereas Belichick only appeared briefly after day one, which is not the norm.

Having said that, let’s take a look at the Patriots draft, both as it happened and now in hindsight.

Round 1, pick 17 - Christian Gonzalez, cornerback. Cornerback was a sneaky need for the Patriots. They struggled to replace J.C. Jackson at outside corner despite seeing some promise from rookie defensive backs, Jack Jones and Marcus Jones, and the improvement of Jonathan Jones. In order to keep up with the Joneses, Gonzalez fell into the Patriots’ lap. He was considered to be a certain top-10 pick and one mock draft had him going as high as number five overall to Seattle, who wound up choosing the other top-ranked cornerback in Devon Witherspoon instead.

The obvious glaring needs for the Patriots were at wide receiver and offensive tackle. By the time the Patriots original pick at number 14 came around, three offensive tackles were off the board, and, surprisingly, all of the top wide receivers were still available including Ohio State’s Jason Smith-Njigba. Offensive tackle Broderick Jones was the obvious choice if the Patriots wanted a tackle. The Patriots could afford to trade down and wait for one of the top receivers and allow the board to decide who they’d pick. But there was Gonzalez.

The Patriots would trade down to pick 17 and get an additional fourth round pick in return. This was a solid decision - made even better by New England’s trade partner, Pittsburgh, drafting Broderick Jones just before the rival New York Jets’ pick. The Patriots, obviously, weren’t high on Jones and would have preferred one of the first three tackles taken or else they would have drafted Jones in this spot, knowing he wouldn’t slip to 17. They were also happy - as an added benefit - he didn’t go to the Jets who were also in need of help at offensive tackle.

The Patriots probably saw little difference in the top five wide receivers so they would be happy with any one of them at 17. I wonder how much the Patriots’ lack of success at drafting wide receivers early in drafts came into play here.  Since 2000, David Givens has the second highest career receptions total, with 166, behind Julian Edelman of wide receivers Belichick has drafted.  For comparison sake, Cooper Kupp (3rd round, 69th overall pick in 2017) of the Rams led the NFL with 145 receptions in 2021 – in one season!  For as bad as N'Keal Harry was, he would still have ranked fifth on that list of career receptions by a wide receiver drafted by Belichick since 2000.

When the Washington Commanders picked cornerback Emmanuel Forbes at 16, an unforeseen opportunity arose for the Patriots. While there was little separation between the top receivers, the top offensive linemen, and even tight ends available, there was one cornerback who stood far atop the next tier of cornerbacks. The Patriots would get rave reviews (A+ across the media board) for making the obvious choice in Christian Gonzalez, a silky smooth 20-year-old cornerback out of Oregon, offensive line coach Adrian Klemm’s old school. Gonzalez should step in on day one as the Patriots’ shut down starting cornerback and be a perennial All-Pro for years to come.

Round 2, pick 15 (46th overall) - Keion White, EDGE.  This was the Belichick we have become familiar with. Despite having four fourth round draft picks now, the Patriots didn’t trade up as was expected. Offensive tackle Matthew Bergeron from Syracuse was believed to be a Patriots target after the top tackles were taken, but he went 38th overall. A run on tight ends had already started, but the behemoth Darnell Washington was still out there. Also, wide receivers were starting to thin out. Jonathan Mingo, wide receiver out of Ole Miss, was a personal favorite of mine but he went the pick after Bergeron at no. 39 which was a double gut punch to me.

The Detroit Lions traded up to get in front of the Patriots to draft Alabama defensive back Brian Branch. Having already drafted Gonzalez, it was doubtful the Patriots would have targeted Branch but the Lions thought so because of the Bill O’Brien ties to Alabama.  The Lions also seemed to reach in the first round with the 12th pick overall to pick running back Jahmyr Gibbs from Alabama, probably for the same reason.

So it seemed obvious the Patriots would go offense with their second pick. Instead they chose EDGE rusher Keion White out of Georgia Tech. My first reaction was disbelief.  Here was Belichick again going against the current.  It took maybe a day or two for me to come around. White is an incredible physical specimen at 6’5”, 285 pounds. The Patriots don’t like to spend money on second contracts to very good players, and Josh Uche’s contract expires after next season. So the writing is on the wall for Uche.

There is little doubt that White will be a very good player, maybe even dominate. He has all the physical tools and the demeanor. On top of that, like Gonzalez, he will have a chip on his shoulder due to being drafted lower than expected. He was present at the draft and expected to hear his name called in the first round. Like Gonzalez, White did not look very happy immediately after getting drafted by the Patriots.

So the problem with this pick is not the pick itself, but the position. Again, the Patriots seemed deep on the defensive line with Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Lawrence Guy Sr.  They gave “one of the best defensive linemen in the league,” according to Belichick, Davon Godchaux, a contract extension last year. They have their pass rushers Uche and Matthew Judon. Where was there a need for White?

But, again, I have come around to liking the pick, especially after what the Patriots did in the final rounds. More on that later. This defense should be a monster next year.

Round 3, pick 13 (76th overall) - Marte Mapu, linebacker from Sacramento State. Most assuredly now the Patriots will go offense. Instead they pick who? From where? This is where my ignorance of college football begins to show. But I like to think I am smart enough to know what the Patriots’ needs are, and they didn’t need any more defensive depth. Mapu is listed at 216 pounds - way too light to be an NFL linebacker.  The Patriots thought  process, again, has to be looking at 2024 and the expiring contract of strong safety, Kyle Dugger. As I said earlier, I don’t understand why, but the Patriots don’t like giving second contracts to their own players, even someone as productive as Dugger.  The Patriots seem eager to groom Mapu as the same strong safety/linebacker type hybrid that Dugger excels at.

I have no problem with Mapu. The Patriots probably could have had him with one of their four (still) fourth round picks. My problem was that Darnell Washington was still out there, as was wide receiver Josh Downs (North Carolina) and tight end Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State).  Both Downs and Kraft would go two and three picks, respectively, after the Patriots picked Mapu. Speculation began to emerge that Washington had some kind of a knee issue which was scaring away teams. I would have taken a third round gamble on that.  Pittsburgh wound up doing so. The top ranked wide receiver overall on most lists, Jalin Hyatt, was taken only three picks ahead of New England.  His teammate at Tennessee, wide receiver Cedric Tillman, was taken two picks ahead of the Patriots.  Did I mention the Patriots still had four fourth round picks, not to mention four sixth round picks? Why are the Patriots, pardon the pun, standing pat?

I am sure Mapu will be good. He looks like a hard hitter in the grainy footage I have seen of him.  I am sure he will be a special teams ace.  But the Patriots needed to gamble on getting a playmaker with this pick.

Round 4, pick 5 (107th overall) - Jake Andrews, center, Troy.  First reaction - is he the brother of current Patriots’ center David Andrews? It is a weird coincidence they play the same position. The answer is no. So the Patriots are getting closer to drafting a tackle. Again, no offense to Andrews, but I was still looking for that wide receiver or tackle here. Plus, I see projections of him being a sixth-round pick.  Seems like a reach.  But with David Andrews' age and history of concussions, the Patriots needed depth at center, just not this early.

Round 4, pick 10 (112th overall) - Chad Ryland, kicker, Maryland. Here the Patriots finally used some of their draft capital to trade up.  This should be good. Belichick has drafted positions that were not considered needs. Surely, he has to fill a premium position on offense now, right?  You would be wrong, and don’t call me “Shirley.”  Belichick has been ridiculed for picking a kicker in this spot.  The prevailing theory is you don’t need to draft kickers or punters.  You can find them at the supermarket or at your local soccer field.  But, I have no problem with using one of your eight fourth- and sixth-round picks on a kicker with a big leg.  Long field goals and kickoffs were a problem for the Patriots.  He just better be more like Adam Vinatieri or Stephen Gostkowski, and not like Justin Rohrwasser who the Patriots drafted in the fifth round in 2020 and has never kicked in the NFL.

Round 4, pick 15 (117th overall) - Sidy Sow, guard, Eastern Michigan.  6’5”, 323 pounds?  Gotta be a tackle, right?  Nope. He is listed as a guard.  This is an easily forgotten pick.  Hope he proves me wrong.  But where is he going to play? The prevailing theory is the Patriots are going to try him at tackle.

Round 5, pick 9 (144th overall) - Atonio Mafi, guard, UCLA.  6’3”, 338 pounds? Guard again? Now this is getting ridiculous.  If nothing else, what have we learned from this article?  Belichick … does… not… give… second… contracts.  Mike Onwenu, one of Belichick’s better draft picks (6th round, 182nd overall, in 2020) this last decade, will become a free agent after 2023.  Looks like there will be four or five guys ready to replace him.  Too bad since Onwenu has been, quietly, one of the better Patriots’ players during this frustrating post-Brady Era.  I have higher hopes for Mafi than I do Sow.  Looks like he has a mean streak to him.  The Patriots have got to be thinking of trying one of these guys at tackle, maybe even Onwenu?  Why did they draft Cole Strange in the first round last year and then all these interior linemen in the mid-rounds one year later?  Are they quietly admitting that Strange may have been a mistake?

Round 6, pick 10 (187th overall) - Bryce Boutte, WR, LSU.  Hey!!!!!!!!!!! A wide receiver! And a pretty damn good one for the 6th round. Boutte has had a couple ankle surgeries and some attitude issues which hurt his value significantly. Some viewed him as a first round talent a year ago.  If he can keep his head on straight, and his right ankle intact, this pick will be a steal and Boutte may find himself at the top of the Patriots’ WR depth chart before long.

Round 6, pick 15, (192 overall) - Bryce Baringer, punter, Michigan State.  For the first time since the Raiders in 2000, a team has drafted a kicker and a punter in the same draft.  That year, the Raiders drafted Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler.  That worked out pretty well for the Raiders.  The Patriots are hoping for the same fortune.  I have no problem with them drafting both because they need both and this is the time to pick them.  They just better pan out.  Actually, they better do better than just pan out.

Round 6, pick 33 (210th overall) - Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty.  Don’t blame me for the length of this article.  Blame Belichick for keeping all these picks. Douglas has been called a poor man’s Zay Flowers, who went 22nd overall in this year’s draft and who I think may have been a Patriots’ target had Gonzalez not fallen to them.  Douglas looks like he can be explosive after the catch which is something the Patriots haven’t had since Julian Edelman’s retirement.  Just keep him away from punt returning (six career muffs). If Douglas makes the team, that may mean the end to the Marcus Jones on offense experiment. The diminutive, shifty Douglas could give the offense the same spark full-time that Jones did last year.

Round 6, pick 37 (214th overall) - Ameer Speed, defensive back, Michigan State.  Special teamer extraordinaire.  That should guarantee him a roster spot.

Round 7, pick 28 (245th overall) - Isaiah Bolden, cornerback, Jackson State University.  His college head coach, Deion Sanders, seems to think there are going to be 31 other teams that are going to be very sorry they passed on drafting Bolden.  We shall see.  Hopefully, Deion taught him some of his cornerback and kick returning skills.  Bolden has all the physical tools.  He just needs to be coached up. If so, coach Deion may prove to be right.

So, to sum it all up, having had a few days to reflect and having seen how the whole draft shook out, the Patriots may have something special here.  Having the good fortune to draft Gonzalez in the first round may hide a lot of the flaws in the middle of this draft.  The Patriots may benefit immensely by having their top two picks be uber-talented as well as uber-motivated to prove teams wrong for allowing them to slip in the draft. Boutte could be motivated the same way.  The defense should be something special.  If they are not the top defense in the league, they should be near the top.  Barmore, Wise, White providing pressure up the middle. Judon and Uche coming from the outside.  Godchaux and Guy as run-stoppers.  Gonzalez and all the Joneses roaming the secondary and Mapu "mopping" up everywhere.  Watch out.  Now if only the offense can put up some points.