NFL Wildcard weekend picks: Which teams are peaking at the right time
Note to self: Don't ever bet on the final week of NFL regular season games. I knew going in Week 18 it was going to be ugly, but damn.
Kansas City and Buffalo couldn't have been more obvious that they wanted to lose. The Dolphins, Bucs, and Falcons all struggled in must win games with playoff implications against bottom of the barrel teams. Sam Darnold couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with his throws against a horrible Detroit secondary. The Packers and Cowboys lost games in the final seconds. The New England Patriots couldn't have fired their head coach fast enough after losing out on the top pick in next year's draft.
Here were my final week results:
Moneyline: 7-9
ATS: 7-9
Points over/under: 12-4
My final regular season stats were respectable, I think. I was pleased that I came up clutch on my over/under point total picks in the final week to get my head above .500 for the season.
Moneyline: 139-69 (66.83%)
ATS: 113-90-2 (55.12%)
Points: 106-99 (51.71%)
Let's turn over a new leaf and turn our attention to the playoffs. It'll be nice to get back to players and coaches that will be trying their hardest, again, to win games.
LA Chargers (-3) at Houston Total: 41.5
Chargers win and cover. Take the under.
Houston came into this season with high expectations, but I think it is safe to say this year has been a disappointment. Sure they finished 10-7, but something has been off the second half of the year. CJ Stroud has regressed and turned into a pumpkin after a surprisingly stellar rookie season.
It seems the offense got away from what worked at the beginning of the season. Joe Mixon was a 100-yard per game machine early in the season but has only gotten more than 14 carries once in the last six games. I'm not sure why they went away from him. Nico Collins had a great start to the season, but hasn't been the same since getting more attention once both Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs went down.
The Chargers' season has trended in the entirely opposite direction. It seems like they have found their true identity as the season has progressed. Early in the season, I felt Harbaugh leaned too much on the run game and tried to convert Justin Herbert into a game manager. Herbert had under 30 pass attempts each of the first four games. That was just silly. Herbert is too much of a talent to just be handing the ball off on first and second downs and throwing on third.
Maybe no team in recent history has benefited more from a bye week than the Chargers did this year. The Chargers' bye week in the first week of October came at just the right time. The Chargers had just lost two in a row. The bye week allowed Herbert's ankle to get fully healthy. It also, maybe, allowed head coach Jim Harbaugh to re-evaluate his offensive philosophy. The Chargers started utilizing Herbert's talent more and passing the ball more. It is not a coincidence that rookie Ladd McConkey emerged as a reliable target around this time.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-9.5) Total: 43.5
Baltimore wins and covers. Take the under.
I don't think this one should be very close. Pittsburgh is crawling into the playoffs, having lost their last four games. Their offense is sputtering. The Steelers can't win when their top wide receiver, George Pickens, misses games with injuries, and, quite frankly, I don't think they can win when he is on the field, either.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has been dying for the playoffs to start. There is no other player in these playoffs who has more to prove. His legacy is at stake. He doesn't want to be known as one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks who couldn't win when it mattered. Pittsburgh should just be a speed bump on his way to Buffalo, Kansas City, and, eventually, the Super Bowl. However, Jackson has been known to lose these types of games. Fortunately, he has Derrick Henry as insurance.
Denver at Buffalo (-8.5) Total: 47.5
Buffalo wins, but Denver covers. Take the over.
This has a chance to be a shootout. The weather should be as good as it gets in Buffalo in January. It should be cloudy, temperatures in the thirties, and with little wind. You have to favor the favorite for league MVP, playing at home, over a rookie quarterback, right? The only two things that give me pause are how good the Denver defense is and Sean Payton. I am not as confident in Buffalo as I was midseason. It is possible they peaked too early.
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-5) Total: 45.5
Philadelphia wins, but Green Bay covers. Take the under.
Both quarterbacks are dinged up which makes me want to take the under. Expect, not surprisingly, a big dose of a well-rested Saquon Barkley which should shorten the game and limit possessions. Philly's defense should shut down Jordan Love who will be without one of his top targets, Christian Watson.
Washington at Tampa Bay (-3) Total:50.5
Tampa Bay wins, but Washington covers. Take the over.
This, also, has the potential to be a shootout. That would be entertaining to see Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield go at it. They are in the second tier of MVP candidates behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Saquon Barkley.
I've been on the Tampa bandwagon all season. I can't hop off now. The emergence of rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan has helped overcome the midseason loss of Chris Godwin. So has the emergence of rookie running back Bucky Irving. What a weapon he has become. The Bucs are growing, coming together, and finding themselves at just the right time. Tampa offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, is deservedly getting some love from teams in search of a head coach.
Washington has won 12 games in Jayden Daniels' rookie season. That is quite the accomplishment. I think we need to take a moment to let that soak in and really appreciate the turnaround Daniels has orchestrated.
He has been Mr. Cool in leading this Washington team at the end of games. He has turned a loser franchise into a winner. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs won't be able to rest easy with any kind of a lead late in the game until the stadium game clock reads all zeros.
Minnesota (-2.5) at LA Rams Total: 47.5
Minnesota wins and covers. Take the under.
Minnesota won 14 games, yet here they are as a fifth-seed playing on the road against the ten-win LA Rams. I am concerned with the Rams' passing attack. Stafford hasn't looked real sharp since playing the Patriots in Foxboro two months ago. The 36-year-old QB has completed 20 passes or more passes in only two of the last seven games. That is not the Hall of Famer Matthew Stafford we have seen all these years.
Cooper Kupp is showing his age, too. He is not the same wide receiver who caught 145 passes in 2021. Maybe that season took a physical toll on him that he has never been able to fully recover from. He hasn't been targeted more than three times in any of the last three games.
Puka Nacua is great but one has to believe Minnesota defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, will devise a way to make the Rams beat them in some other way.
It was very concerning the way Sam Darnold played in the final game of the entire regular season for the NFL against Detroit. The game was heralded as one of the most anticipated regular season games of all time. For the first time ever, it pitted two 14-win teams against each other in the regular season. There was a lot at stake.
The Vikings lost, 31-9, and that is why they will be playing on the road this weekend while Detroit sits at home on their couches while watching the games on TV.
Darnold was terrible – completing only 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards. Jets' fans recognized that Sam Darnold they saw on that Sunday night – missing wide open receivers and getting flustered in the pocket. Darnold thought he had laid that older version of himself to rest. It will be interesting to see how it will affect him, psychologically, going into the playoffs. These are the games that really count. Might he suffer from a form of imposter syndrome where he starts thinking people are going to see him for who he really is? Will he start seeing ghosts again?
Another important consideration for this game is the frightening situation going on in California right now with the out of control fires. For that reason, the game has been moved from L.A. to Arizona. This could have an effect on the Rams. I'm sure some of the players and coaches may have homes in the area of the fires. It would be understandable if their minds aren't 100% on this game. On the other hand, the Rams may be more motivated to win this game to give the people of L.A. something to cheer for.