NFL picks: Chargers-Chiefs, Green Bay-Detroit highlight Week 14

It was a great bounceback week for me after a s0-so week (by my very high standards) the week before. It is amazing how good I was on my picks, but not so good on picking the over/unders. It was a crazy week for over/unders, though, as a lot of games were within a point or two of the Vegas line so it is hard for me to be mad. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to Vegas.

I was mad about Mac Jones screwing me by throwing a late touchdown pass in the Houston game to make the final score, 23-20. He doesn't even play for New England anymore, yet he is still haunting me. I had Houston covering 6.5 points on quite a few parlays in which I nailed every other leg, which is why they tell you not to play parlays. But I can't resist.

Here were my results:

Moneyline 14-2

ATS: 11-5

Points: 6-9

For the season:

Moneyline: 89-42

ATS: 75-53-1

Points: 66-63

Week 14 looks to be a tough one. I don't have a good feeling about this one, but let's go!

GB @ DET (-3) Total: 51.5

How about this game to start out the week. The Packers dominated the Dolphins on a cold night in Green Bay. Is it fair to say the Lions are "struggling" because they're not putting up 50 points and beating opponents by 30 every week?

Green Bay lost the last matchup against Detroit in Lambeau, 24-14, but Jordan Love was gimpy after coming off a groin injury. He is completely healthy now. Detroit has been hit hard by injuries on the defensive side, but that explosive offense is still intact.

I have been slow to come around on Green Bay this year, but I am banking on them to deliver Detroit a piece of long overdue humble pie this week after Thanksgiving.

Green Bay wins outright. That point total is too high for two teams with good running games. Take the under.

JAX @ TEN (-3.5) Total: 39.5

What an awful, cheap shot hit on Trevor Lawrence last week. I only saw it once and that was enough. Lawrence was put on IR this week so his season is over. It will be the Mac Jones Experience the rest of the way for the Jags. Don't screw me again, Mac!

I only lost two games picking straight up last week, but when I lose, I lose big. I picked Tennessee to upset the Washington Commanders. Boy, was I wrong. That game was over in the first twelve minutes.

The Titans shouldn't be over a field goal favorite against anybody. Take Jacksonville to cover and – you know what? – they will win, too. Take the under. Take that, Mac Jones.

NYJ @ MIA (-5.5) Total: 44.5

The Jets scared me there for a second last week. They jumped out to a two touchdown lead on the Seahawks, but then they imploded. The Dolphins still have slim playoff hopes.

Miami wins and covers. Take the under. The season can't end soon enough for the Jets and their fans.

ATL at MIN (-6) Total: 45.5

How long before Michael Penix takes over for Kirk Cousins. Cousins has been awful. He threw four interceptions last week and has thrown six in the last three games. He hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in over a month...

So I will take Atlanta to pull off an upset in Minnesota. It will be the Kirk Cousins revenge game. Take the over. Sports gamblers know logic doesn't matter, sometimes.

NO (-4) at NYG Total: 40.5

Just a gross game.

Take New Orleans to win, but the Giants to cover. The point total has risen a point since the beginning of the week which has me salivating. Hammer the under.

CAR at PHI (-13) Total: 45.5

I was all over Philadelphia beating Baltimore last week. Ditto with Carolina covering against Kansas City. I feel confident that I have an excellent read on these two teams. So you may want to fade these picks this week.

Philadelphia wins, but Carolina covers. Bryce Young is playing better and Philly will have a letdown after their big win last week. Take the under.

CLE at PITT (6.5) Total: 43.5

Pittsburgh is a big favorite despite Cleveland beating them just two weeks ago in the snow. You just don't know what you are going to get from Jameis Winston. He had 497 yards passing and four touchdowns last Monday night against Denver, but also had two of his three interceptions returned for touchdowns.

Take Pittsburgh to win, but Cleveland to cover and pray Winston doesn't throw a pick-six at the end of the game to blow it. I really, really like the over in this one.

Raiders at Tampa Bay (-6.5) Total: 46.5

Baker Mayfield is becoming one of my favorite stories this year. I am rooting for him (but my picks are never based on emotion).

Tampa wins, but the Raiders find a way to cover. Give me the under.

Seattle at Arizona (-2.5) Total: 44.5

These two teams faced off just two weeks ago (who made these schedules?) in Seattle and I was as wrong as can be about that game. I picked Arizona to win a high scoring game. They lost, 16-6.

I am going to pick Seattle to win and cover in this one despite my writing last week that I was one of the first on the Cardinals' bandwagon this year. They screwed me against Minnesota last week so I am still bitter. Forget what I said just a second go about me not letting emotions influence my picks. Take the over, but who knows which Kyler Murray will show up on Sunday.

Buffalo (-3.5) at LA Rams Total: 49.5

The Rams won for me against the Saints last week, but they killed me on player props. Matthew Stafford only had 14 completions for 183 yards against that New Orleans' defense?!?!

Cooper Kupp only had 3 receptions for 17 yards. Puka Nacua only had 5 catches for 56 yards. Disgusting.

Buffalo wins and covers. The Bills are just on another level right now. This game stays under with how ordinary Stafford has looked the last two weeks.

Chicago at San Francisco (-3.5) Total: 43.5

That was one of the worst coaching jobs in the final minute of a game ever last week by Matt Eberflus, who is now the former head coach of the Chicago Bears. San Francisco placed both their top running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, on season-ending IR this week.

Let's get Chicago a big win this week. They deserve it after coming so close lately. This game ekes over.

LA Chargers at Kansas City (-4) Total: 42.5

I feel the same way about the Chargers' performance last week against the Falcons as I did the Rams against the Saint. The Chargers won, as well, but only scored 17 points against that Atlanta pass defense. Justin Herbert threw only 23 times for 147 yards against that Atlanta pass defense. Disgusting times two.

I am picking the Chargers to win this one. Kansas City has been playing with their prey too much this year. This one gets away from them. I think this game goes over, easily.

Cincinnati (-5.5) at Dallas Total: 49.5

The Bengals have gotten off to bad starts in recent years, but this year they were unable to get things turned around. The Cowboys are on that same list as the Jets of teams just hoping the season ends soon.

The Bengals win and cover thanks to Joe Burrow. Burrow has thrown for over 300 yards in his last three games. That gives me enough reason to pick the over in this one. I think the Bengals put up 38+ points in this one. The Bengals defense is horrible, too.