Indiana Pacers will upset the Celtics

There is no doubt the Celtics have the talent to win it all. Not that they need much help, but the basketball gods have been on their side this postseason, as well. They played Miami in the first round without their best player, Jimmy Butler. Then they played an already depleted Cleveland Cavaliers’ team in the next round before their best player, Donovan Mitchell, also went down midway through the series, but not before Cleveland managed to steal Game Two in Boston. Miami, coincidentally, had also managed to upset the Celtics in Boston in Game Two. The Celtics would go on to win both series, comfortably, 4-1.

I believe the Celtics also lucked out on Denver getting eliminated by the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves yesterday. The battle-tested Nuggets, led by three-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, would have posed a big problem for the oft-over confident Celtics. In fact, I would have picked the Nuggets to beat the Celtics in the Finals. I think the Celtics’ chances are far better against the Mavericks or Timberwolves, although the Timberwolves will be tougher if they come to play every night (which has been a problem for them).

The Celtics almost kept their luck going if the Knicks could have figured out a way to eke out a victory in Game Seven Sunday against the Indiana Pacers. The Knicks were already playing on fumes when their best player, Jalen Brunson, broke his left shooting hand midway through the game. It would have been just like the Celtics to have to play in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks without Brunson.

But, instead, the Celtics will be playing a healthy Indiana Pacers' team. On paper, the top-seeded Boston Celtics should steamroll through the sixth-ranked Pacers. But that’s why they play the games.

The Pacers have gone 4-5 in their last nine games against the Celtics. Not bad. Only twice in their last nineteen games against each other has a team not reached the 100-point mark. So expect a lot of offense. The Pacers finished first in the NBA, averaging 123.3 points per game, while Boston finished second at 120.6. The difference is the Celtics finished fifth in points allowed while the Pacers finished 27th out of 30 teams.

But the Pacers have been playing better defense ever since they acquired two-time All Star, Pascal Siakam, from the Toronto Raptors in January. So disregard anything you will be hearing from the media when they reference Indiana’s season statistics. This team is trending in the right direction. And, most importantly, they are hungry. Can you say the same for the Celtics?

And that is why I am picking the Pacers to upset the Celtics. That’s right. I keep hoping these Celtics learn from previous year’s disappointments. But I haven’t seen it. 

Having followed both series, relatively closely, there was no comparison in the intensity levels. The Knicks and Pacers went at it tooth and nail, covering the entire 94-foot length of the basketball court. The Celtics and Cavs walked the ball up the court and both teams were stagnant on offense. The Cavs gave it their best their first game without Donovan Mitchell, but phoned it in after they realized they couldn’t win without him.

This will be a series where the Celtics will need Kristaps Porzingis back. The Celtics interior defense was atrocious against the Cavaliers. They gave up too many easy layups and dunks in the halfcourt sets. They made Evan Mobley (33 points in the final game) look like Joel Embiid.

I was very impressed with Siakam against the Knicks. He handles himself beautifully around the rim and has a fluid, consistent mid-range game. He can even hit the occasional three. I think Siakim will be the difference in this series. I can see him putting up 25 points and 10 rebounds in every game, if Porzingis doesn’t return. Al Horford and Luke Kornet will be no match for him.

Siakim isn’t even Indiana’s best player. Tyrese Haliburton is the leader of the team. Haliburton has struggled with injuries the second half of the year which affected his overall statistics. Pre-All Star break Haliburton was averaging 21.8 points and 11.7 assists per game. Those numbers tailed off to 17.3 and 9.6 after the All-Star break due to Haliburton dealing with ankle and back injuries.

After a so-so first round against Milwaukee, Haliburton got healthy against the Knicks. In three of the seven games, he hit six or more three-pointers. The Celtics were able to hold him in check during the regular season — holding him to 15.8 points and 9.0 assists. Haliburton doesn’t get much elevation on his three-point shot and he hardly ever goes to his left. He has an excellent mid-range game, however, shooting almost 70% from two-point range.

The Pacers also have good height which, again, attacks a weakness of the Celtics without Porzingis. Veteran Myles Turner is 6’11” and was a consistent contributor in the Knicks’ series. He also serves as Indiana’s rim protector. He will be a difference maker for Indiana in this series.

A fun matchup to watch in this series will be Indiana’s T.J. McConnell against Boston’s Payton Pritchard. I predict McConnell will be Bostonian’s Enemy Number One by the end of the series. He looks like he shouldn’t be as good as he is. And he has a cocky air about him that will rub Boston fans the wrong way. But he is intense and, again, that is something the Celtics lack... and fans will hate him for it.

Pritchard will have to match O’Connell’s intensity and spark. If anyone can, it will be Pritchard. The wide open style of this series should benefit Pritchard the most on the Celtics. I can foresee several double-digit scoring games for Payton. This will be a fun matchup to watch.

The one who I think will be hurt the most by the fast pace of the games will be the, soon-to-be, 38-year-old Al Horford. He has played a lot of (too many) minutes in this postseason with Porzingis being hurt. He will have a tall task guarding Siakim and Turner and keeping up with them up and down the court.

Of course, the focus will be on the Celtics’ star players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If Tatum slips up in this series – even a little bit – the Celtics will be going home, disappointed, in a couple of weeks. If he turns his head for two seconds to gripe about calls like he always does, the Pacers will be burning past him. And that is what I think is going to happen. The Pacers are physical and they foul a lot, but the officials can’t, and won't, call every foul. I expect some 7-for-24 type shooting games from Tatum in this series... and he will make excuses for them, afterwards.

Brown, on the other hand, should thrive with the pace of the series. I predict he will be the leading scorer for the Celtics in this series. I am worried that there have been signs of the old turnover-prone Jaylen Brown resurfacing, however. He has been bouncing the ball off his leg on drives more and more frequently. We've seen this story before.

Another question I have is which Jrue Holiday is going to show up for this series? Holiday has been a little too comfortable taking a back seat to Tatum and Brown. I expect more out of him. His defense on Haliburton will be huge in this series, but he also needs to show a little more aggressiveness on offense. Like Horford, the 33-year-old may also struggle to keep up with the pace of the series. He already seemed lethargic playing half court offenses in the first two rounds. It just doesn’t seem like he is too into it.

There is also the coaching matchup. Indiana head coach, Rick Carlisle, was a member of the Celtics during the glory days of Bird, McHale, and Parish.  It is crazy to me to think he has been a head coach in the NBA since 2001. Prior to that, he was an assistant coach since 1989. He has been very fiery during these playoffs. He is a motivator and a tactician. You have to give him the edge against Joe Mazzulla, so Mazzulla better come up with something better than just isolating Tatum or Brown on offense in halfcourt sets.

In conclusion, Indiana is the hungrier team. They have been battle-tested this postseason. They won a Game 7 in a celebrity-filled, high profile, hostile environment in Madison Square Garden. This is a young team that likes to run and press full court. It is something the Celtics are not accustomed to. This series has upset (and disappointment) written all over it for the Celtics. Jayson Tatum will say, afterwards, that only one team can win it all every year, and that it doesn't matter, anyway, because everyone knows the Celtics were the better team.

Indiana in seven.