Grading the Patriots’ offseason: Bring back a 4-13 team and you have a 4-13 team... or worse

Bill Belichick used to say the season really starts after Thanksgiving. For too many seasons lately, including this one, the season has been over before it ever had a chance to begin for the Patriots by Thanksgiving. 

The Patriots were never expected to be playing meaningful games in December this year. Belichick left the cabinets too bare for a turnaround to happen that quickly after a 4-13 season in 2023.

Everyone knew this was a rebuild year. No one expected the Patriots to make a run at the playoffs in 2024. But we did expect at least as many wins as last year, if not one or two more. More importantly, we expected to see progress and to see the team playing better at the end of the year than the beginning.

Right now, with four games to go, the Patriots are stuck on three wins and they will be hard-pressed to win another one to match last season's total as they have two games with the Bills (10-2) and one each with the Chargers (8-4) and Cardinals (6-6) left.

So what went wrong?

To answer that question we need to look at how this current team was constructed. There is no better time than the present to assess the personnel decisions that were made during one of the more critical offseasons in the last thirty years for the Patriots – the coaching staff hirings, the draft, the re-signings, contract extensions, and free agency.

January 11 - Bill Belichick fired (A)

What a sham of a press conference that was. Call it what you want - a “mutual parting of ways” - but this was a firing. It had to be done. Belichick’s personnel decisions dating back to letting the greatest quarterback of all-time, Tom Brady, walk away in March, 2020 were beyond horrible. He wanted to fully embrace the belief that he, alone, was the reason for the Patriots' success. He didn't need any divas or stars. He was the star. He was wrong. It is the players that make the team.

GM Belichick, and his hubris, is why the Patriots are in the situation they are in today. Thanks, Bill.

January 12 - Jerod Mayo hired as head coach (F)

Well, that was fast. One day after Belichick’s dismissal, Jerod Mayo was hired. What happened to doing a search? Mike Vrabel was out there. Vrabel should have been the next Patriots’ coach, period, end of story. He may well be the next one.

But Mayo had some backroom agreement with owner Roert Kraft (aka, Young Thundercat) that he would succeed Belichick, presumably after Belichick broke Don Shula's all-time win record. Kraft was worried Mayo would be take a head coaching position with some other team. He shouldn't have been.

Mayo had no previous head coaching experience and it has shown. He wasn’t ready.

January 27 - DeMarcus Covington named defensive coordinator (C-)

The Patriots again hired from within to fill the defensive coordinator gap left open by Mayo’s promotion and Steve Belichick’s departure to the University of Washington. Covington inherited a top-ten defense, but the trade of a disgruntled Matthew Judon and a rare disease that sidelined Christian Barmore for the beginning of the season left unfair expectations for Covington.

This defense was not the same as last season’s. Losing run stuffer and defensive captain, Ja’Whaun Bentley, in Week 2 was another huge loss.

However, this defense shouldn't be this bad. They have had superstar cornerback Christian Gonzalez healthy this season. He has shut down his area of the field, but there have been too many blown coverages elsewhere. How do you allow running backs to catch passes in goal line situations two consecutive weeks with no defenders on their half of the field? 

We all knew not having Judon would hurt the Patriots’ pass rush, but there was still enough there with Keon White, Dietrich Wise, Josh Uche, and Anfernee Jennings to scheme some more imaginative pass rushes.

They did get nine sacks in one game against Chicago. They have 18 sacks in the other 12 games – an average of 1.5 sacks per game. They have shown they can do better.

February 1 - Alex Van Pelt named offensive coordinator (C)

Van Pelt had no experience as an offensive play caller other than one playoff game in 2020 when he filled in for head coach Kevin Stefanski who was sick that day. Van Pelt deserves high grades for his work with the quarterbacks. If I were grading him as a quarterback coach, he would get an A+.

But his play calling has been too conservative. He doesn’t believe in running motion pre-snap. His offense has committed too many penalties. He hasn’t used enough screens. His pass routes don’t have enough spacing between the receivers. He refuses to utilize Drake Maye’s running ability in short yardage and goal line situations. I could go on and on.

The most important question is – Is Van Pelt the right offensive coordinator and play caller for Drake Maye's skill set? I just think Pelt's style is too conservative and that it may restrict Maye too much.

I will give AVP credit, though, that he has been getting a little more imaginative with the offense ever since Maye took over. Unlike the head coach, I have seen improvement and evolvement from Van Pelt over the course of the season. There may be hope for him yet. These last four games will be critical for him and his job security.

March 5 - Assign the franchise tag to Kyle Dugger (F)

I loved Kyle Dugger as much as anyone his first few seasons with the Patriots. The guy was bad ass. He reminded me of a young Rodney Harrison. But he has failed to reach the heights that Rodney Harrison got to. The bottom line is Dugger is not a top-five safety in this league commiserate with deserving a franchise tag.

Dugger’s pass coverage has always been bad, but this year it has, somehow, sunk to new depths. Something has just been off with him this year. Is it complacency now that he got paid?

The Patriots already had Jabrill Peppers on the roster who, essentially, plays the same role as Dugger. Peppers, however, was seeing his career trajectory surpassing Dugger's. More on that later.

March 8 - Re-sign tight end Hunter Henry (A)

I am not the biggest Hunter Henry fan. Maybe I have been spoiled by watching the uber talented Rob Gronkowski all those years.

Henry was the best free agent tight end out there, however, and the Patriots had no other tight ends on the roster! While Henry is limited in what he can do, the Patriots needed to bring him back. While he lacks any real run after the catch ability, he is a highly reliable pass catcher. He has also been a solid leader and has represented the team well.

March 11 - Sign free agent, offensive tackle Chukwuma Okorafor (F)

The Patriots knew they needed help at the tackle position. Jonah Williams was out there. Former Dallas Cowboy and five-time Pro owler Tyron Smith was available. The Patriots chose to go with Okorafor, though. He had mostly played right tackle in his career with Pittsburgh and lost his starting job to rookie Broderick Jones last year. He was very vocal in his displeasure about it, too.

Okorafor was absolutely awful in the preseason and quit on the team after only one regular season game.

March 12 - Re-sign EDGE Josh Uche (C-)

This one was a surprise. No one expected Uche to return to the Patriots. Everyone thought he would get a better contract somewhere else once he hit free agency. Instead, Uche took a team-friendly deal ($3 million?!?!) to stay with New England.

It looked good at the time more for what it represented. Someone, post-Brady, wanted to stay in New England. It made it appear as if players really loved Mayo and would take less money to play for him and help with the rebuild. Uche proved he was nothing without Judon on the field with him, but would, at least, net a sixth-round draft pick from the Chiefs in a trade later in the season.

March 14 - Sign offensive guard (?) Mike Onwenu (A)

This was the first day free agency officially began. Unlike previous years, the Patriots were very active right out of the gate.

Mike Onwenu was the big signing. There was a very real possibility of another team throwing a boatload of money at the All-Pro offensive guard. Instead, the Patriots showed that maybe things were really different now. They loosened their purse strings, for a change, and gave Onwenu $19 million per year over three years. That put Onwenu right near the top for highest paid offensive guards. Little did anyone know what the Patriots would have planned for him. Did Mayo and company even know at the time? It doesn't look it.

As bad as the offensive line has been this year, imagine how bad they would be if Onwenu had signed somewhere else. Brrrr, I just got a chill.

Onwenu hasn’t been great, but can you blame him? The way the Patriots have shuffled him back and forth between tackle and guard is one of many reasons Mayo may deserve to be fired at the end of the season.

March 14 - Sign running back Antonio Gibson (A-)

Gibson was the first big-ish free agent signing from outside the franchise. Running back wasn’t a glaring need, but the Patriots were in need, among several other things, of a receiving third-down back to take some of the load off Rhamondre Stevenson who had been doing everything the last couple of years.

Gibson has proven to be more than just a third down back, however. I have heard rumblings on talk radio this week that Gibson should be getting more playing time than veteran starter Rhamondre Stevenson. Gibson has shown a better comfort level with the Van Pelt offense than Stevenson. He has been negligently under-utilized in the passing game, but that, again, is a coaching problem, not Gibson’s.

March 14 – Sign linebacker Sione Takitaki (F)

The Patriots were looking to increase their speed in the linebacking corps and improve their pass coverage at that position. Takitaki was brought in to do that and also serve as insurance in case Bentley ever got hurt. The problem is Takitaki is always hurt. It is fun to say his name, though.

March 14 – Sign tight end Austin Hooper (B)

Did I mention the Patriots went into free agency with no tight ends. They let Pharaoh Brown go despite him being one of the better finds by Belichick and being one of the few bright spots on offense in 2023. Hunter Henry had the option of leaving.

Van Pelt had a familiarity with Hooper from their days in Cleveland. After a slow start to the season – including a foolish fumble against Houston in which he used the ball to press it against the ground to balance himself after stumbling making a catch – Hooper has emerged as one of Drake Maye’s favorite receivers, catching four passes in each of the last three games and having a touchdown in each of the last two. In addition to that, Hooper has been very sure-handed catching passes from Maye as he has been targeted 28 times in 8 games with Maye throwing him the ball and caught 26 of them. He has been a pleasant surprise.

March 14 – Trade Mac Jones and release Devante Parker and Chris Board (A)

Hard to give Wolf too much credit for these moves. They were all no-brainers. Jones' only chance at salvaging his NFL career was a change of scenery. He had no hope here in New England.

I still can’t believe Belichick gave Parker an extension in response to Parker pouting over the Patriots being interested in DeAndre Hopkins. It just shows how out of it Belichick was at the end. Fast forward to a year later and Parker is out of the league... and so is Belichick. 

I only mention Board here because it was a refreshing reminder that Belichick was no longer here. The days of having four or five exclusive special team specialists on the roster were over.

March 15 - Sign Jacoby Brissett and re-sign Anfernee Jennings (B-)

Brissett has a familiarity with New England. He started his career here. Most importantly, he understood what his role would be here. He signed a one-year contract. He knew he was a bridge quarterback to whomever the Patriots drafted. Having said that, Brissett was expected to bring a steady guiding hand to the offense and win, at least, a few games. He did neither. He did take a pounding, though.

The Patriots could have tried to pry free agent Baker Mayfield from Tampa to come up here for big bucks, but it wouldn’t have made sense if New England was drafting a quarterback. In hindsight, Sam Darnold would have been the best choice, but who would have guessed that at the time?

Jennings has been adequate for the Patriots after being constantly hindered with injuries his first few seasons in New England after being drafted in the third round in 2020. Entering the 2024 season, he had recorded only three career sacks. Like many of Belichick's draft picks in the last five years, Jennings could have been easily replaced by any number of other players.

March 19 - Sign wide receiver KJ Osborn (F)

The Patriots flirted with free agent wide receiver Calvin Ridley for a good length of time, but, apparently, Ridley's girlfriend wasn’t too keen on spending winters in New England. Ridley signed with Tennessee, instead.

So Patriots’ fans eagerly awaited to see how Eliot Wolf and the Patriots would address the wide receiver situation. Would they trade for Tee Higgins or Brandon Ayuk Maybe Deebo Samuel.

Imagine the disappointment when news broke that the Patriots had signed... KJ Osborn. It is no surprise that Osborn hasn’t produced this season in New England without having somebody like Justin Jefferson drawing all the attention on the other side of the field. To make matters worse, Osborn thinks and talks as if he is better than he is.

March 21 - Re-sign wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (C+)

I had almost forgotten Bourne was on the team after missing last year with a torn ACL. Did the Patriots think that the combination of Bourne and Osborn would solve their wide receiver problems? Bourne is fine, but – are we seeing a theme here? – easily replaceable. Despite being a veteran, he still makes too many mistakes on the field like dropping passes and running wrong routes.

April 22 - Sign tight end Mitchell Wilcox (F)

The Patriots were still searching for a third tight end to fill out the position on the roster. Wilcox was god-awful. He wasn't even a consideration to make it out of pre-season.

April 29 - Give Christian Barmore a hefty contract extension (A-)

This came as a major surprise and, again, was an indication that things had changed in Foxboro. It is very reasonable to believe Belichick would never have re-signed Barmore, especially not for that amount of money.

I’m not going to play Monday morning quarterback and say it was a mistake to have given Barmore all that money because of his blood clot health scare this summer. At the time of the signing, everyone was overjoyed that Barmore was staying in New England. I was happy that I would still be able to wear my Barmore jersey – which I bought two years ago in anticipation of Barmore becoming a star – for many more years to come.

May 11 – Eliot Wolf officially named executive vice president of player personnel (C+)

Well, this is what this whole exercise of grading these personnel decisions is about. It is, basically, a referendum on Eliot Wolf. I said it at the time and I will stand by it – I think Wolf will be a good to excellent GM in the NFL. Football is in his genes. He is the son of a Hall of Fame NFL former executive, Ron Wolf, who created one of the best and longest running successful franchises in league history during his time in Green Bay.

So Eliot Wolf has breathed football since his very first breath on this earth. He is a football nerd. My hope – and quite frankly, belief – is that he will do for the Patriots what Theo Epstein did for the Red Sox. I hope that statement ages well. {Fingers crossed}

May 16 – Give center David Andrews a contract extension (A)

Andrews is the glue that was holding together a very delicate, fragile offensive line. It sucks that he got hurt and has had to miss this season. Hopefully, it is not the end of the road for Andrews. He is a leader on this team. He is, maybe, thee leader on this team until Drake Maye is ready to take the mantle. Andrews is one of the few linkages this current team has to its glory days.

May 24 – Draft Day (overall, C-)

New England's return on draft day looked far better at the time. Again, that is why I am not going to be too harsh on Wolf. For the most part, I agreed with his approach. He went all offense in the draft, with the exception of drafting Marcellas Dial in the sixth round with the 180th overall pick. There were no kickers or punters drafted. There was no no-name guy from a Division II school drafted three or four rounds above where he was projected to go.

As we approach the end of the year, the draft as a whole, after the Drake Maye no-brainer pick, has to be evaluated as an utter and absolute failure. No one can argue otherwise, not even me.

It is still early and I still hold out hope for some, if not all, of them. To grade fairly, each player deserves a grade of Incomplete, but I will grade them on a curve based on what they have done (which, sadly, hasn't been much) and what I still, realistically, think their future holds. The grade of the player also factors in the quality of the pick itself, regardless of the player's performance and future prospects.

Drake Maye (A+) - It could be, and has been, argued that Wolf doesn’t deserve any credit for drafting Maye. Critics say he had the decision made for him by Chicago and Washington.

But Wolf did always have the option of passing on Maye and trading down, most likely, with Minnesota and getting their two first round picks. There were even some who argued that Maye was too flawed and raw and that Patriots should come up with a package to trade up to ensure they got either Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels. Late in the process, Michigan's JJ McCarthy's stock was rising so much that a few were speculating that the Patriots were so enamored with his leadership and ability that maybe they would not even trade down, but, instead, take him with the third overall pick in hopes that he would follow in the footsteps of another former Michigan quarterback who worked out quite well for the franchise.

Wolf deserves a little credit for dismissing all those temptations.

Ja’Lynn Polk (F) - Hopefully, Polk just needs an offseason to regroup himself. He came out of college with a reputation for being sure-handed and he has been anything but. I was supportive and patient all season, even during the numerous drops, but my hope is, rapidly, fading.

Caedan Wallace (D) - The Patriots needed a left tackle. Instead of trading up a few spots to get in on the run at the end of the second round of the remaining top tier of true left tackles in the draft, the Patriots stayed pat and drafted a player who had only played right tackle in college in hopes of converting him to left tackle. But they then played him at right tackle for most of the preseason.

Either way, the offensive line was going to be bad this year, but the way Mayo experimented with so many different combinations on the offensive line was just baffling. It showed a man with no plan or conviction going into camp.

Layden Robinson (C+) - Robinson cracked the starting lineup before Wallace did. Robinson has shown great potential as a run blocker, but has been awful pass protecting. Guess what? That’s what his scouting report was coming out of college.

The Patriots had Onwenu established as an All-Pro right guard. They had drafted interior linemen Cole Strange, Sidy Sow, Atonio Mafi, and Jake Andrews in the last two drafts. The team did not having any quality tackles on the roster. Everyone and their mother knew the Patriots needed tackles for the offensive line. So why did the Patriots draft another offensive guard?

What made the decision even more head scratching for me was that Robinson's glaring weakness was pass blocking. They just drafted Drake Maye. He is your franchise. Wouldn't you want a pass blocking extraordinaire to protect your franchise?

Javon Baker (D) - I’m still waiting to get my popcorn ready to watch Baker play at Gillette. Not only do I not have my popcorn in the microwave waiting to press the start button, I haven't even gone to the supermarket to buy the popcorn yet. No need. Oh, Javon.

Maybe Baker hasn’t found his way to the field at Gillette because he keeps taking the wrong routes. I am sorry to be blunt here, but it sounds like Baker just isn't very smart. He hasn't been able to pick up on the playbook and grasp concepts.

I had my concerns about Baker’s head when they drafted him and, unfortunately, those concerns have come to fruition. It is one thing to be a wide receiver diva when you are putting up numbers like Tee Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase, but Baker is just a diva at a dive bar at this point.

Again, like Polk, I am not ready to give up on Baker. How many years did we put up with N’Keal Harry and Tyquan Thornton? But show me something here in the final four games that will make me open up a package of saltine crackers, at least.

Marcellus Dial (C-) - Dial was the only defensive player drafted by the Patriots so, almost by default, he had to make the team. He has contributed a little on special teams – even forcing a fumble – but has been horrible when asked to play on defense in a few situations.

Joe Milton (C+) - The guy is going to be an electric draw somewhere in the NFL someday, but it won't be here in New England. He showed definite flashes in the preseason that he belongs. He is too good to be a backup. If the Patriots can get higher than a sixth round draft pick – which is where they drafted Milton – then this pick should be considered a win. If Milton goes on to become Lamar Jackson, then no number of draft picks would make the trade look good. Which then begs the question why did the Patriots spend two draft picks on potential superstar quarterbacks?

Jaheim Bell (C) - Bell has also contributed on special teams and has contributed an entire one yard of total offense to the team. I still love the concept of Jaheim Bell. Let's see if he can covert his potential versatility and playmaking on offense into a reality and make his case to be the second tight end option on this team next year. Is it too much to ask for him to become a semblance of Jonnu Smith?

The fact that Bell is an offensive player playing special teams shows me something. It shows he wants to contribute.

June 20 - Give Rhamondre Stevenson an extension (C+)

I go back and forth on this one. I love Stevenson, but, as we all know, unless your name is Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, the running back position in the NFL isn't that important. A great offensive line can make any running back look like Emmitt Smith.

The opposite is true, as well, which is the obvious case with the Patriots and their horrible offensive line. It doesn't matter if Barry Sanders was in the Patriots' backfield, he would be averaging less than four yards per carry.

As mentioned earlier, Antonio Gibson may be the better running back for this team at this point.

July 2 - Re-sign Jahlani Tavai (D)

I give credit to Tavai for changing my mind. I was not a big fan of his for the longest time, but he grew on me. Even still, I haven't changed my mind that much that I think we needed to re-sign him through the 2027 season at $5+ million per year.

July 26 - Re-sign Jabrill Peppers (C+)

The Patriots threw another $28 million over three years to Jabrill Peppers. It is as if we were watching an episode of Oprah – you get a contract extension, you get a contract extension, you ALL get contract extensions... except you, Matthew Judon. More on that one later.

Peppers emerged as a vocal leader on the Patriots. Standing on its own, I would have agreed with the deal, but when you combine it with the contract they gave Dugger.... meh. I would have rather kept Peppers and let Dugger walk.

Again, I am not going to play Monday morning quarterback and factor in what may, or may not, have happened, domestically, with him and his girlfriend. No one could have predicted that last summer.

August 8 - Release JuJu Smith-Schuster

What took so long?

August 15 - Trade Matthew Judon to Atlanta for a third round draft pick

A third round pick was a great return Wolf got for someone of Judon’s age and recent injury history. It was, however, the first sign that there may be a crack in Mayo's locker room. If nothing else, Mayo's one strength was that the players loved him and that he was a leader of men. Unlike Belichick, Mayo was supposed to be "a players' coach."

The visual of Judon blatantly disrespecting, ignoring, and arguing with Mayo during a public practice session in the summer immediately made people begin to wonder about Mayo's ability to control his team. It was such a public slap in the face by Judon to Mayo.

The Judon situation also threw into question the whole philosophy of throwing money around in such a haphazard and public fashion. Players who weren't getting raises were beginning to look around and ask, "Hey, what about me?"

Conclusion

The one grade I left out and which is the one that truly matters is Robert Kraft's. Ultimately, all these personnel decisions stem from him and lead right back to him. We, fans, love to call the Patriots our team, but this is Robert Kraft's team.

He is well aware of the responsiblity that he has as the owner of the Patriots. He was a season-ticket holder before even owning the Patriots. He knows the reverent place that the New England Patriots have in our hearts and how important the team is in our lives. Sundays in the fall and winter revolve around football.

So Kraft wants to get this ship righted as quickly as possible. Once you taste victory at the level Kraft has, you want more and more. Winning is addictive.

There was no way this team was going to get turned around in one season like the Washington Commanders have done, to this point. Just having someone like wide receiver Terry McLaurin on the field makes Jayden Daniels' supporting cast far better than the Patriots. Bill Belichick left this team with absolutely nothing. I cannot stress that enough.

Having said that, should the Patriots, at least, be better than they were a year ago? It shouldn't have been a very high bar to jump over.

This new regime had an entire draft to orchestrate where, theoretically, they could have added two or three starters who should be making significant contributions by now. They should have been able to sign at least one or two impactful free agents.

This new regime showed a willingness to spend money. They were, reportedly, very close if not, indeed, the highest bidders for Calvin Ridley and Brandon Ayuk. Money was not the issue in both those cases. Both players just didn't want to come to New England.

And therein lies the biggest problem for the Patriots. They need to create a culture and, quite frankly, a track record of success again in order to lure players to want to come here. For two decades, players wanted to come to New England to play with Tom Brady and to have a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl ring.

Ayuk didn't want to come to New England because the Patriots don't have someone like Brady to throw him the ball. The Patriots didn't, at the time, have a starting quarterback that was even close to the equivalent of Ayuk's current quarterback, Brock Purdy. Ayuk is no fool. He knows he needs a good quarterback to make him look good and to pad his stats. Look at the stats for the Patriots' wide receivers when Jacoby Brissett was the starting quarterback. They were almost non-existent.

Better stats means better contracts and better endorsements.

This front office had plenty of cap space to play with. As Mayo said on his first day on the job – which was a precursor to how many times he would have to backtrack from impulsive comments he has made this season – the Patriots were "ready to burn some cash."

The Patriots didn't burn that cash on many players from outside the organization. They didn't bring in players, coaches, or executives from winning organizations. Instead, they burned the cash, mostly, re-signing and giving extensions to bring back players from their 4-13 team from a year ago. Guess what? When you put the same players and coaches back on the field and sidelines from a 4-13 team, you get a 4-13 team... or worse. What is the definition of insanity again?

For that, Robert Kraft gets an F.