Calm down on Mahomes

When people ask me who am I rooting for in the NFL playoffs, I say, “Whoever is playing Kansas City?” Why? Because of what is happening right now. I knew it would happen. I just knew it.

It is a commentary on society today. People have always had short memories. You’ve heard the question asked, “What have you done for me lately?” In my day, “lately” could mean anything up to months, maybe even years ago. Today? “Lately” means last week, or even just yesterday.

Johnny Unitas was considered the greatest quarterback of all time for around 30 years. Then it was Joe Montana. He had the title for about 30 years until Tom Brady came along. People believed Brady would hold the title for a long time, maybe even more than 30 years. People said no one will ever win seven Super Bowls for a long, long, long time.

Yet here we are, only two years removed from Tom Brady’s retirement, and people are saying that Patrick Mahomes is on the same lap as Brady and may be even pulling ahead. Patrick Mahomes is 28 years old and has played six seasons as a starter. Tom Brady retired at 45 after starting for 22 seasons. Excuse me as I hit the “page down” button on his Pro Football Reference page in order to see his full career stats.

There are college graduates in New England right now that don’t remember watching a Patriots’ quarterback prior to Tom Brady. Drew Bledsoe? Who’s that? Meanwhile, in Kansas City, any college graduate would remember watching Alex Smith or maybe even Matt Cassel as their starting quarterback. Which is to say, Mahomes has a ways to go in the longevity and consistency area.

If starting out a career like a ball of fire were the standard, then Bo Jackson would be widely regarded as the greatest running back in NFL history. Bo Jackson averaged 5.2 yards per carry in four remarkable seasons with the Oakland Raiders – while playing baseball at an All-Star level for the Kansas City Royals. No one had seen anyone run with that combination of speed and power since Jim Brown.

Bo Jackson is the only running back in NFL history to have two touchdown runs of over 90 yards. Yet, his career was cut short by a debilitating hip injury in 1990. To this day, it ranks near the top of my list of biggest sports regrets of my life. Number one on my list, and it is not even close, is the Patriots losing to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl depriving the Patriots of a perfect season in 2007. Being deprived of seeing more of Bo Jackson is up there, though.

Growing up, I was  a huge Don Mattingly fan. There was something about his crouched, pigeon-footed batting stance that I loved. Mattingly put together one of the best four-year stretches of baseball in the 1980’s. The stretch displayed a combination of power and batting average not really seen in the game around that time. Either you hit for power and had a low batting average (see Ron Kittle, Rob Deer), or you hit for a high average and not much power (see Wade Boggs or Rod Carew). He averaged 30 HRs, 121 RBI, and a robust .337 batting average from 1984 to 1987. 

I thought Mattingly would be a sure-fire Hall of Famer.  But his career was cut short by a bad back. Mattingly never appeared in a World Series despite earning the nickname “Donny Baseball.” He never even played a playoff game. His best chance came in his final year, in 1994, when it looked like the Yankees had, finally, put together a team poised to win it all, until a baseball strike ended the season midway through. The team was 70-43 when the season got canceled. Two years later, the Yankees won the World Series. The year before Mattingly joined the team in 1982, the Yankees won the World Series. 

The fact Mattingly never played a playoff game, nevermind in a World Series, is another one of my big sports regrets. Talk about bad timing. Yet, I want to try so hard – and I have – to argue Mattingly belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but it is difficult to counter that he wasn’t dominant for long enough.

Mahomes doesn’t have the issue of not being a winner. It is the most compelling argument in Mahomes’ favor. His teams have made the playoffs every year he has started. This year was the first time he had to play a road playoff game. Not only have his teams made the playoffs every year, but they have made it to the AFC Championship Game each of his six years. He has made it to three Super Bowls and won two. This Super Bowl may give him his third ring.

It is a remarkable stretch. But, it is a stretch. He has made it look relatively easy so far. I am not taking anything away from him, especially if he wins a third Super Bowl ring. But he won’t always have Travis Kelce to throw to. He won’t always have Andy Reid as a head coach. He won’t always have the same offensive coordinator.

There will be changes coming soon. Not every quarterback handles change well. There will always be an adjustment period. That’s what makes winning consistently over a long period of time a challenge.

When Dan Marino took the 1984 Miami Dolphins to the Super Bowl, everybody thought it was the first of many Super Bowls that he would play in. Marino would play another 16 seasons and never sniff a Super Bowl again.

It just goes to show it is not easy. Mahomes has accomplished far more than Marino in terms of winning championships. Heck, he has done far more than any quarterback in NFL history other than Brady. But other teams will get better.

Mahomes is yet to find his Peyton Manning to have a rivalry with. Maybe that quarterback will be one of the big three that will be drafted this year. Maybe that quarterback is still playing high school football. But there will be somebody. And Mahomes will not always win.

Troy Aikman won three Super Bowls in the span of four seasons with the Dallas Cowboys in the 1990’s. He took them to four consecutive NFC Championship games by the time he was 30. Sound familiar? Yet, just five seasons later, his career was over. You never hear anyone talk about Aikman as one of the greatest quarterbacks ever.

This is a different era from the days of Marino, Montana, Aikman, and even early Brady. Teams don’t stay together as long. There is free agency. There are salary caps. There are lucrative contracts that mean players don’t need to play long careers to continue making money. There is more extensive research today about the long term effects of concussions that has caused some players to retire early.

Which is all to say that Mahomes, probably, won’t be playing into his late 30’s. If he does, odds are he won’t be as effective as he is now. Does that give him enough time to win four or five more rings and put up the career stats that Brady did?

One difference in today’s game that will help Mahomes is the focus on quarterback safety. It helped Brady extend his career. One of many great attributes of Brady was his ability, or good fortune, to stay healthy. Mahomes has, as well, but he runs far more than Brady which leaves him susceptible to more hits.

So take it for what it is, but let’s not rush to judgment. Mahomes is great and he is on the fast track to being an all-time great. Let’s have Brady have his time. I don’t adhere to things like “There will never be another Tom Brady” or “There will never be a two-decade long dynasty like the Patriots.” There will be. Just like no one thought there would be a Tom Brady or a dynasty like the Patriots had.