2023 Patriots season prediction: Pats may be better, but their record won't show it

The 2023 Patriots are going to be put to the test right from the jump. There will be no easing into the season, no warmups. They will be matching up against last year’s Super Bowl runner up, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles came a penalty flag away from winning the Super Bowl, and the team improved in the offseason. Their defense is one of the league’s best, and the Patriots offensive line is in disarray and they are implementing a new offense under a new offensive coordinator.

So the chances of the Patriots getting to a positive start are not promising. But could they lose, and still get a “moral victory” from the game? Win or lose, it is imperative the team gives fans a glimmer of hope for the season. The bar will be set low for the offense against the Eagles. If they score a touchdown on offense, I’d consider that a win in this game. I am eager and excited to see this crop of rookies in real game situations.

So without any further adieu, let’s get to my prediction for the season. But first a question - is it possible for the 2023 team to be better than the 2022 team, and maybe even the 2021 team, but not have a better record than those teams? The 2022 team went 8-9 and the 2021 team (Mac Jones’ rookie season) went 10-7. I believe this year’s team is better than either of those teams.

The defense is far more dominant. They have added, hopefully, a shut down cornerback in the draft that allows the other players in the secondary to fall back into their more comfortable roles. No longer do you need slot cornerbacks having to try to cover the outside, or safeties having to try to cover slot receivers. Now you can blitz more, or rotate coverage to other options and trust Gonzalez on an island by himself.

And you won’t even have to have your safeties blitz. The Patriots front seven will provide more than enough pressure on their own. We all know what Matt Judon can do, and Josh Uche had a breakout season last year (just in time for a contract year). Christian Barmore seems healthy and he should have a new partner creating havoc from the inside in Keon White. Who are you going to double team?

The secondary, outside of Christian Gonzalez, is deep. Jonathan Jones was one of the top slot defenders last year, but he was asked to play a lot of boundary cornerback. This year he should be back in the slot. Jack Jones, hopefully, has his legal problems behind him. Now we just have to worry about everything else with him. Jones' play on the field last year, however, showed his potential as being a ball-hawk playmaker on the outside. His preseason was not as encouraging.

Despite the loss of Devin McCourty, the safety group should be exciting to watch as well. They may be the hardest hitting safety group Belichick has had since the first Patriots dynasty, led by Lawyer Milloy. Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Kyle Duggar, and rookie Marte Mapu will be laying the lumber on unsuspecting receivers all year.

The defense alone will keep the team in games. They are that good. This is a Super Bowl caliber defense Belichick has put together. The offense is a different story. They will be the difference between this year’s team being 10-7 or 7-10. Can they put up enough points? And by enough, I am talking just about 24-plus points.

The offense lacks the explosive talent of the upper echelon teams in the NFL. They will have to “matriculate” down the field, as Hank Stram once said. There won’t be many, if at all, one, two, or three play touchdown drives. The Patriots will have to work to score behind the running of their best offensive talent, Rhamondre Stevenson, and a short, quick passing attack featuring tall, but lumbering pass catchers.

And then there are the questions about Mac Jones. Can he put the entire blame for a sub-par 2022 season on Matt Patricia? Can he revert back to Alabama Mac, or at least first half of his rookie season Mac? I think the answer will be yes - Jones will be a mid-tier NFL quarterback, and that is fine. He still lacks a signature win, so the question will be can he perform in the fourth quarter when the money is on the table. Like I said, the Patriots’ defense will keep the team in games. It will be up to Jones to string some game-winning drives to get this team to the playoffs.

Finally, there is the special teams. The Patriots will be featuring two rookies at punter and place kicker. Bryce Baringer showcased a booming leg in preseason. If he keeps it up, he should be a weapon in helping to tilt field position if the offense struggles. The bigger concern will be kicker. Chad Ryland takes over for steady Nick Folk. The Patriots have been fortunate for almost three decades having three reliable kickers that fans need not worry when the occasion came up for a 45-yard clutch field goal. Ryland has the leg, but does he have the mental and intestinal fortitude to convert his college success to the NFL. There are many kickers who had college success that have not been able to carry it over to the NFL. Unfortunately, I am thinking Ryland may cost the Patriots a win this year - which is not to say Ryland won’t be a solid NFL kicker. I just think he will have some hiccups in his rookie season, and it will be costly at times.

So, having said all that, I think this Patriots team will be better than the last two seasons, but their record won’t show it. They play a very difficult out of division schedule, and their division has improved dramatically. No longer are the Jets two easy victories. In fact, they might be two definitive defeats. Miami made their jump last year and seems to always be good for a split of the season series with the Patriots, with each team winning at home. And Buffalo, while maybe not as strong as in seasons past, they are still more talented than the Patriots, and barring any blizzards, they should sweep the Patriots. So that is 1-5 in the division.

Looking at their non-division schedule, I see victories against New Orleans, Las Vegas, Washington, and Indianapolis. That gets them up to five victories. That leaves the Giants, Chargers, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Denver. Bill Belichick owns Justin Herbert and New England plays the Chargers at home so I will give that to the Patriots for a sixth win. The Chiefs look like an obvious loss, despite the game being at Gillette. The Patriots always struggle in Denver and we all know the Patriots’ history against the Giants. I will give the Patriots one win out of those two road games - I’m unsure which one it would be, but I am pretty sure they can pull off one of them. That leaves the Steelers in Pittsburgh on a Thursday night prime time game. Ordinarily a road victory against Mike Tomlin and the Steelers seems improbable, but I think at that point in the schedule, the Patriots could be riding a four-game winning streak and feeling pretty good about themselves. So let’s give them an eight victory there.

So an 8-9 record sounds about right to me. They are always good for losing a game they should win, but I could also see another win in the division.

Either way, it is great to get the season under way. The Patriots’ rookie class gives fans something to be very optimistic about. So does the defense. This is one season where fans may look forward to watching the Patriots’ defense on the field instead of the vanilla offense. If the offense can put something together, this team could make a push for the playoffs.

On the flip side, if the Patriots offensive line resembles swiss cheese all season, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s knee blows up early, and DeVante Parker plays less than half the games - all very possible - this could be a disaster of a season and 7-10 might be optimistic.